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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in November 2025, with a middle field date of November 24, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,421 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (November 2025), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 41% ▲1 LPC 40% ▼1 CPC 8% NDP 7% BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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154 LPC 151 CPC 26 BQ 10 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 NS 7 4 NB 6 4 QC 42 26 9 1 ON 64 56 1 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 13 1 AB 34 2 1 BC 21 17 4 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll November 24, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 48% LPC 42% ▲2 CPC 7% ▼1 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Quebec 41% ▲2 LPC 30% BQ 22% ▼2 CPC 2% ▼3 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Ontario 46% ▲2 LPC 43% CPC 8% NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 50% ▼4 CPC 33% LPC 14% ▲4 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Alberta 61% CPC 28% ▲2 LPC 9% ▼2 NDP 1% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 40% ▼2 CPC 39% ▼3 LPC 16% ▲5 NDP 4% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 42% LPC 39% CPC 10% NDP 7% BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Male voters 42% CPC 41% LPC 6% BQ 6% NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 39% ▼2 LPC 38% ▲1 CPC 12% NDP 4% ▲1 BQ 4% GPC 3% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 46% ▲3 CPC 34% LPC 9% NDP 6% ▼3 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 46% ▼1 CPC 41% ▲8 LPC 6% ▼1 BQ 6% ▼3 NDP 1% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 49% ▼1 LPC 34% ▼3 CPC 9% ▲1 BQ 6% ▲2 NDP 1% GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Government approval 48% ▲4 Approve 32% ▼2 Disapprove 20% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 48% 32%2025-11-24 44% 34%2025-11-06 47% 34%2025-10-27 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 50% 30%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-31 49% 30%2025-08-17 50% 27%2025-08-04 52% 27%2025-07-13 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 45% Positive / favourable 31% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 24% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 45% 31%2025-11-24 45% 33%2025-11-06 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 45% 32%2025-08-31 48% 30%2025-08-17 48% 29%2025-08-04 49% 28%2025-07-13 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 42% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 39% ▲2 Positive / favourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-11-24 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 39% 42%2025-11-24 37% 44%2025-11-06 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 40% 42%2025-08-17 42% 41%2025-08-04 38% 42%2025-07-13 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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