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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in October 2025, with a middle field date of October 27, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,922 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.8%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (October 2025), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), the Liberal Party remains stable at 40%, and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


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Canada 42% ▲1 CPC 40% LPC 8% NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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160 CPC 149 LPC 24 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 NS 7 4 NB 6 4 QC 42 24 11 1 ON 62 58 1 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 35 1 1 BC 20 19 3 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll October 27, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 45% ▼9 LPC 40% ▲2 CPC 11% ▲6 NDP 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Quebec 40% ▲4 LPC 27% ▼6 BQ 25% ▲2 CPC 3% ▲1 GPC 2% ▼2 NDP 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% LPC 44% ▲1 CPC 8% NDP 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 54% ▲3 CPC 31% ▼3 LPC 9% ▼3 NDP 3% ▲2 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Alberta 62% ▲1 CPC 25% ▼2 LPC 12% ▲3 NDP 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 41% ▼1 CPC 40% LPC 13% ▲1 NDP 4% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 40% LPC 38% CPC 11% NDP 5% BQ 4% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Male voters 46% CPC 39% LPC 6% BQ 6% NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 40% ▲2 CPC 38% LPC 10% ▲5 NDP 5% ▼1 BQ 4% ▼2 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 45% ▲1 CPC 36% ▲1 LPC 12% ▲5 NDP 3% GPC 1% ▼5 BQ 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 47% ▲1 CPC 32% ▼5 LPC 9% ▲3 BQ 8% ▼2 NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 49% ▲2 LPC 37% ▲1 CPC 8% ▼1 BQ 5% ▼6 NDP 1% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Government approval 47% ▼1 Approve 34% ▲2 Disapprove 19% ▼1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 47% 34%2025-10-27 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 50% 30%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-31 49% 30%2025-08-17 50% 27%2025-08-04 52% 27%2025-07-13 52% 25%2025-06-29 52% 25%2025-06-18 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 46% Positive / favourable 32% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 22% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 46% 32%2025-10-27 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 45% 32%2025-08-31 48% 30%2025-08-17 48% 29%2025-08-04 49% 28%2025-07-13 49% 28%2025-06-29 48% 29%2025-06-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 42% Negative / unfavourable 39% Positive / favourable 19% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-27 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 39% 42%2025-10-27 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 40% 42%2025-08-17 42% 41%2025-08-04 38% 42%2025-07-13 39% 43%2025-06-29 41% 41%2025-06-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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