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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in October 2025, with a middle field date of October 12, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=4,501 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (September 2025), the Conservative Party remains stable at 41%, the Liberal Party remains stable at 40%, and the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 41% CPC 40% LPC 8% ▲1 NDP 7% BQ 3% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 54% ▲7 LPC 38% ▼3 CPC 5% ▼1 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Quebec 36% ▼1 LPC 33% ▲3 BQ 23% ▼3 CPC 4% ▲3 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Ontario 44% ▼1 LPC 43% ▲1 CPC 8% ▲1 NDP 3% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com

Manitoba/Saskatchewan 51% ▼2 CPC 34% ▲2 LPC 12% ▲5 NDP 2% ▲1 PPC 1% ▼6 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Alberta 61% ▲4 CPC 27% ▲2 LPC 9% ▼2 NDP 1% GPC 1% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
British Columbia 42% ▲1 CPC 40% ▼1 LPC 12% ▼3 NDP 5% ▲3 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 38% ▼2 LPC 38% ▲3 CPC 6% ▲1 BQ 6% ▼1 GPC 5% ▼4 NDP 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 44% ▲5 CPC 35% ▼5 LPC 7% ▼2 NDP 6% ▲1 BQ 3% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 46% ▲1 CPC 37% LPC 10% ▲2 NDP 6% BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
60+ years old 47% ▲5 LPC 36% ▼4 CPC 11% ▲6 NDP 9% ▼1 BQ 1% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com



Government approval 48% ▲2 Approve 32% ▲1 Disapprove 20% ▼3 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 48% 32%2025-10-12 46% 31%2025-09-29 50% 30%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-31 49% 30%2025-08-17 50% 27%2025-08-04 52% 27%2025-07-13 52% 25%2025-06-29 52% 25%2025-06-18 53% 23%2025-06-04 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove


Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 46% ▲1 Positive / favourable 31% Negative / unfavourable 23% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 46% 31%2025-10-12 45% 31%2025-09-29 48% 30%2025-09-15 45% 32%2025-08-31 48% 30%2025-08-17 48% 29%2025-08-04 49% 28%2025-07-13 49% 28%2025-06-29 48% 29%2025-06-18 51% 27%2025-06-04 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 42% Negative / unfavourable 39% ▼1 Positive / favourable 19% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 39% 42%2025-10-12 40% 42%2025-09-29 40% 41%2025-09-15 39% 42%2025-08-31 40% 42%2025-08-17 42% 41%2025-08-04 38% 42%2025-07-13 39% 43%2025-06-29 41% 41%2025-06-18 39% 44%2025-06-04 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable



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