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About this Innovative Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Innovative Research in June 2025, with a middle field date of June 18, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=4,029 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Innovative Research (May 2025), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 43% ▲1 LPC 38% ▼1 CPC 8% NDP 6% BQ 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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176 LPC 134 CPC 23 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 46 23 8 1 ON 69 52 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 11 3 AB 34 2 1 BC 20 19 3 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Innovative Research federal poll June 18, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Innovative Research




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 54% ▲1 LPC 35% ▼5 CPC 7% ▲3 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Quebec 44% ▲3 LPC 28% ▲2 BQ 20% ▼4 CPC 4% ▼3 NDP 2% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Ontario 46% ▼1 LPC 41% ▲1 CPC 8% NDP 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 49% CPC 36% ▲8 LPC 10% ▼4 NDP 3% ▼2 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Alberta 59% ▼3 CPC 26% ▲2 LPC 10% ▲2 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 41% ▼1 LPC 40% ▲2 CPC 13% ▲1 NDP 5% ▼1 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 43% LPC 36% CPC 9% NDP 7% BQ 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Male voters 42% LPC 40% CPC 6% BQ 6% NDP 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-34 years old 41% LPC 37% CPC 10% NDP 4% BQ 4% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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35-54 years old 39% LPC 39% CPC 9% NDP 7% BQ 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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55+ years old 46% LPC 38% CPC 8% BQ 5% NDP 2% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Preferred PM 43% Carney 30% Poilievre 12% ▼1 Don't know 4% Davies 3% ▲1 May 3% Blanchet Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Innovative Research Preferred PM tracker 43% 30%2025-06-18 43% 30%2025-05-17 ◻︎Carney ◻︎Others ◻︎Don't know ◻︎Poilievre
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Government satisfaction 52% ▲3 Satisfied 42% ▼1 Dissatisfied 6% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Innovative Research Government satisfaction tracker 52% 42%2025-06-18 49% 43%2025-05-17 31% 65%2024-12-11 53% 44%2021-05-20 50% 47%2021-04-08 ◻︎Satisfied ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Dissatisfied
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 50% Positive / favourable 28% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 22% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 50% 28%2025-06-18 50% 27%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 37% ▼1 Positive / favourable 20% Neutral / Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 37% 43%2025-06-18 38% 42%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Don Davies 77% ▼3 Neutral / Unsure 14% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable 9% ▲1 Positive / favourable Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Don Davies 9% 14%2025-06-18 8% 12%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Yves-François Blanchet 39% Positive / favourable 37% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure 24% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-06-18 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Yves-François Blanchet 39% 24%2025-06-18 39% 26%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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