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About this Innovative Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Innovative Research in May 2025, with a middle field date of May 17, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,517 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Innovative Research (April 2025), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party climbs two points from 37% to 39% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party loses three points from 11% to 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


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Canada 42% ▲1 LPC 39% ▲2 CPC 8% ▼3 NDP 6% BQ 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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172 LPC 140 CPC 22 BQ 7 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 4 NS 9 2 NB 6 4 QC 44 22 11 1 ON 72 49 1 MB 6 6 2 SK 13 1 AB 35 1 1 BC 23 17 2 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Innovative Research federal poll May 17, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Innovative Research




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 53% ▲5 LPC 40% ▲7 CPC 4% ▼13 NDP 1% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Quebec 41% ▲2 LPC 26% ▲2 BQ 24% ▼1 CPC 7% ▲1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Ontario 47% ▲2 LPC 40% CPC 8% NDP 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 49% ▲6 CPC 28% ▼10 LPC 14% ▼2 NDP 5% ▲4 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Alberta 62% ▲5 CPC 24% ▼1 LPC 8% ▼7 NDP 2% ▲2 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 42% ▼1 LPC 38% ▲4 CPC 12% ▼4 NDP 6% ▲2 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Preferred PM 43% Carney 30% Poilievre 13% Don't know 4% Davies 3% Blanchet 2% May 2% Bernier Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Innovative Research Preferred PM tracker 43% 30%2025-05-17 ◻︎Carney ◻︎Others ◻︎Don't know ◻︎Poilievre
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Government satisfaction 49% ▲18 Satisfied 43% ▼22 Dissatisfied 8% ▲4 Neutral/Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Innovative Research Government satisfaction tracker 49% 43%2025-05-17 31% 65%2024-12-11 53% 44%2021-05-20 50% 47%2021-04-08 ◻︎Satisfied ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Dissatisfied
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 50% Positive / favourable 27% Negative / unfavourable 23% Neutral / Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 50% 27%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 42% Negative / unfavourable 38% Positive / favourable 20% Neutral / Unsure Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 38% 42%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Don Davies 80% Neutral / Unsure 12% Negative / unfavourable 8% Positive / favourable Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Don Davies 8% 12%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Yves-François Blanchet 39% Positive / favourable 35% Neutral / Unsure 26% Negative / unfavourable Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-05-17 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Yves-François Blanchet 39% 26%2025-05-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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