logo
Canada

About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in March 2025, with a middle field date of March 11, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,700 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.4%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (February 2025), the Conservative Party loses three points from 41% to 38%, the Liberal Party climbs five points from 29% to 34%, and the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 38% ▼3 CPC 34% ▲5 LPC 15% ▲1 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 4% GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

150 CPC 146 LPC 28 BQ 17 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 NS 6 5 NB 6 4 QC 37 28 12 1 ON 70 47 4 1 MB 6 5 3 SK 13 1 AB 33 2 2 BC 24 12 6 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll March 11, 2025 🍁
✓ Copied!
Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 42% ▲5 LPC 40% ▼2 CPC 13% ▼1 NDP 3% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Quebec 37% ▲3 LPC 30% ▲3 BQ 21% ▼3 CPC 7% ▼1 NDP 3% GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Ontario 39% ▼6 CPC 38% ▲7 LPC 15% ▲1 NDP 4% GPC 3% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

Manitoba/Saskatchewan 47% ▼9 CPC 24% ▲8 LPC 23% ▼2 NDP 5% ▲4 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Alberta 56% ▼2 CPC 20% ▲3 LPC 17% NDP 4% ▼4 PPC 2% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
British Columbia 40% CPC 26% ▼1 LPC 26% ▲6 NDP 5% ▼6 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 35% ▼4 CPC 34% ▲4 LPC 17% NDP 7% ▲2 BQ 5% GPC 3% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Male voters 41% ▼3 CPC 33% ▲4 LPC 14% ▲2 NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 3% ▼1 GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 35% CPC 30% ▲3 LPC 20% ▼1 NDP 8% GPC 4% ▲1 BQ 2% ▼3 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
30-44 years old 42% ▼6 CPC 31% ▲4 LPC 17% ▲4 NDP 4% ▼2 GPC 3% ▼1 BQ 3% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

45-59 years old 37% ▼5 CPC 36% ▲6 LPC 14% ▲1 NDP 7% ▼2 BQ 4% ▲1 GPC 1% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
60+ years old 37% ▲5 LPC 37% ▼3 CPC 12% ▼1 NDP 11% ▲3 BQ 2% GPC 2% ▼3 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!



Government approval 50% ▼6 Disapprove 34% ▲6 Approve 16% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-03-11 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 34% 50%2025-03-11 28% 56%2025-02-23 27% 56%2025-02-08 21% 63%2025-01-07 22% 62%2024-12-17 24% 61%2024-12-02 25% 61%2024-11-17 25% 62%2024-11-03 24% 61%2024-10-20 26% 59%2024-10-07 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
✓ Copied!




Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


P#720