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About this Mainstreet Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Mainstreet Research in January 2025, with a middle field date of January 26, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=936 Canadian respondents via text message to online survey.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

This poll was conducted entirely in Ontario.

If we compare these Ontario numbers with the previous poll from Mainstreet Research (January 2025), the Liberal Party loses three points from 43% to 40% (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party remains stable at 39%, and the New Democratic Party climbs three points from 9% to 12% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


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Ontario 40% LPC 39% CPC 12% NDP 4% GPC 3% PPC Mainstreet Research federal poll (Ontario only) | 2025-01-26 338Canada.com
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72 LPC 45 CPC 4 NDP 1 GPC Ontario only NL PEI NS NB QC ON 72 45 4 1 MB SK AB BC YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Mainstreet Research regional federal poll January 26, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

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