logo
Canada

About this Nanos Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Nanos Research from September 25, 2026 to October 16, 2026 (four-week rolling poll). The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,016 Canadian respondents via live telephone interviews.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

The regional breakdown of this poll was not made publicly available.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Nanos Research (October 2026), the Liberal Party climbs two points from 49% to 51% (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party loses two points from 30% to 28% (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 51% ▲2 LPC 28% ▼2 CPC 12% ▲1 NDP 6% BQ 2% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Nanos Research federal poll | 2026-10-16 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

270 LPC 59 CPC 11 NDP 2 GPC 1 BQ 172 seats NL 7 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 10 QC 75 2 1 ON 108 11 2 1 MB 6 5 3 SK 9 5 AB 28 7 2 BC 34 4 4 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Nanos Research federal poll October 16, 2026 🍁
✓ Copied!
Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Nanos Research




Preferred PM 61% Carney 21% Poilievre 9% ▼1 Don't know 4% ▲1 Lewis 2% May 2% Blanchet 2% Bernier Nanos Research federal poll | 2026-10-16 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Nanos Research Preferred PM tracker 61% 21%2026-10-16 61% 21%2026-10-09 59% 20%2026-10-02 62% 20%2026-09-25 59% 21%2026-09-18 56% 21%2026-09-11 55% 21%2026-09-04 51% 21%2026-08-28 50% 20%2026-08-21 53% 18%2026-08-14 ◻︎Carney ◻︎Others ◻︎Don't know ◻︎Poilievre
✓ Copied!





Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


P#1156