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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in June 2025, with a middle field date of June 29, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,500 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (June 2025), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party climbs two points from 7% to 9% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 41% ▼1 LPC 40% ▲1 CPC 9% ▲2 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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153 LPC 153 CPC 26 BQ 9 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 4 NS 9 2 NB 6 4 QC 42 26 9 1 ON 61 59 1 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 33 3 1 BC 21 17 4 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll June 29, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 47% ▼1 LPC 37% ▼1 CPC 12% ▲6 NDP 3% ▼5 GPC 2% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Quebec 42% ▲4 LPC 31% ▲3 BQ 19% ▼5 CPC 4% ▼1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% ▼4 LPC 43% ▲2 CPC 8% ▲2 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 54% ▲9 CPC 33% ▼6 LPC 11% ▼2 NDP 2% PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Alberta 60% ▼5 CPC 27% ▲3 LPC 10% ▲4 NDP 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 41% ▲5 CPC 39% ▼6 LPC 14% ▲2 NDP 5% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 41% ▼3 LPC 37% ▼1 CPC 11% ▲3 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Male voters 42% ▲1 CPC 40% ▼1 LPC 7% BQ 6% NDP 3% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 42% ▲3 CPC 37% LPC 12% ▼1 NDP 6% ▲2 BQ 3% ▼3 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 42% ▼1 CPC 37% ▼3 LPC 10% ▲3 NDP 5% ▼1 BQ 4% ▲2 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 42% ▼2 LPC 37% ▼1 CPC 9% ▲4 NDP 7% BQ 3% ▲2 PPC 2% ▼2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 45% ▼2 LPC 38% ▲1 CPC 9% ▲2 BQ 5% NDP 2% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Government approval 52% Approve 25% Disapprove 23% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 52% 25%2025-06-29 52% 25%2025-06-18 53% 23%2025-06-04 50% 24%2025-05-18 41% 25%2025-03-23 39% 25%2025-03-19 34% 50%2025-03-11 28% 56%2025-02-23 27% 56%2025-02-08 21% 63%2025-01-07 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 49% ▲1 Positive / favourable 28% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 23% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 49% 28%2025-06-29 48% 29%2025-06-18 51% 27%2025-06-04 49% 29%2025-05-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 43% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable 39% ▼2 Positive / favourable 18% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-29 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 39% 43%2025-06-29 41% 41%2025-06-18 39% 44%2025-06-04 40% 43%2025-05-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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