logo
Canada

About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in June 2025, with a middle field date of June 4, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,585 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±1.9%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (May 2025), the Liberal Party is up one point (variation similar to moe), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 8%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 42% ▲1 LPC 39% ▼1 CPC 8% NDP 6% ▼1 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

170 LPC 137 CPC 25 BQ 9 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 QC 42 25 10 1 ON 71 50 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 34 2 1 BC 19 18 5 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll June 4, 2025 🍁
✓ Copied!
Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 56% ▲5 LPC 33% ▼4 CPC 6% ▼3 NDP 3% ▲1 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Quebec 42% ▲4 LPC 29% ▼2 BQ 22% ▼2 CPC 4% ▲1 GPC 3% NDP 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Ontario 47% LPC 41% CPC 7% NDP 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

Manitoba/Saskatchewan 54% ▲1 CPC 31% ▲4 LPC 13% ▼3 NDP 1% ▼2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Alberta 63% ▲1 CPC 26% ▼1 LPC 10% ▲1 NDP 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
British Columbia 39% ▼2 LPC 38% ▼1 CPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 2% ▲2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 43% LPC 39% CPC 7% ▼1 NDP 6% BQ 3% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Male voters 41% ▲3 LPC 40% CPC 9% NDP 7% ▼1 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 39% ▲4 LPC 39% ▼5 CPC 11% NDP 5% ▲1 BQ 3% ▼2 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
30-44 years old 45% ▲7 CPC 35% ▼4 LPC 10% ▼1 NDP 6% ▼2 BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!

45-59 years old 41% ▼3 CPC 40% LPC 7% ▲1 BQ 7% ▲1 NDP 4% ▲2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
60+ years old 51% ▲4 LPC 33% ▼3 CPC 7% ▼1 BQ 6% ▼1 NDP 1% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!



Government approval 53% ▲3 Approve 24% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure 23% ▼1 Disapprove Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 53% 23%2025-06-04 50% 24%2025-05-18 41% 25%2025-03-23 39% 25%2025-03-19 34% 50%2025-03-11 28% 56%2025-02-23 27% 56%2025-02-08 21% 63%2025-01-07 22% 62%2024-12-17 24% 61%2024-12-02 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
✓ Copied!


Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 51% ▲2 Positive / favourable 27% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 22% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 51% 27%2025-06-04 49% 29%2025-05-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
✓ Copied!

Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 44% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 39% ▼1 Positive / favourable 17% Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-06-04 338Canada.com
✓ Copied!
Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 39% 44%2025-06-04 40% 43%2025-05-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
✓ Copied!



Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


P#912