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About this Innovative Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Innovative Research in March 2025, with a middle field date of March 12, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,558 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Innovative Research (March 2025), the Conservative Party loses two points from 41% to 39% (variation similar to moe), the Liberal Party climbs two points from 31% to 33% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 39% ▼2 CPC 33% ▲2 LPC 13% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲1 BQ 4% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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165 CPC 133 LPC 31 BQ 13 NDP 1 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 3 1 NS 7 4 NB 6 4 QC 34 31 12 1 ON 61 56 4 1 MB 6 5 3 SK 13 1 AB 30 5 2 BC 27 14 2 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Innovative Research federal poll March 12, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Innovative Research




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 45% ▲3 CPC 40% ▼1 LPC 6% ▼4 NDP 6% ▲2 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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Quebec 32% ▲4 BQ 30% ▼4 LPC 23% ▲2 CPC 6% ▲3 GPC 5% ▼5 NDP Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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Ontario 40% ▼4 CPC 37% ▲4 LPC 15% NDP 4% ▼1 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 43% CPC 27% ▼3 LPC 23% ▲4 NDP 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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Alberta 50% ▼12 CPC 29% ▲10 LPC 15% ▲1 NDP 3% GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 45% CPC 32% ▲5 LPC 18% ▼1 NDP 4% ▼2 GPC Innovative Research federal poll | 2025-03-12 338Canada.com
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