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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in August 2024, with a middle field date of August 16, 2024. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,300 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (August 2024), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Liberal Party climbs two points from 23% to 25% (variation similar to moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 18%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 42% ▼1 CPC 25% ▲2 LPC 18% NDP 7% BQ 5% ▲1 GPC 3% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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213 CPC 72 LPC 32 BQ 24 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 8 2 1 NB 7 3 QC 32 31 14 1 ON 86 25 10 1 MB 7 4 3 SK 13 1 AB 35 2 BC 33 5 4 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll August 16, 2024 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 46% ▲5 CPC 32% ▼2 LPC 16% ▼3 NDP 4% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Quebec 30% BQ 29% ▲5 LPC 26% ▼5 CPC 9% ▼3 NDP 5% ▲2 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% CPC 27% ▲1 LPC 19% ▼1 NDP 5% ▲1 GPC 4% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 54% ▲3 CPC 17% ▼3 LPC 16% ▼4 NDP 3% ▼2 GPC 3% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Alberta 57% ▼5 CPC 24% ▲11 NDP 15% ▼2 LPC 4% ▼3 PPC 1% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 45% ▲3 CPC 23% ▼3 NDP 21% ▲4 LPC 6% ▼1 GPC 4% ▼3 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 38% ▼4 CPC 24% ▲3 LPC 21% ▼1 NDP 8% ▲1 BQ 6% ▲2 GPC 3% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Male voters 47% ▲3 CPC 26% LPC 15% NDP 5% ▼1 BQ 4% GPC 3% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 35% CPC 27% ▲2 LPC 19% ▼5 NDP 8% ▲2 GPC 6% ▲2 BQ 5% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 42% ▼1 CPC 24% ▲1 LPC 22% ▲1 NDP 5% ▲1 GPC 4% ▼1 PPC 2% ▼3 BQ Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 47% ▼4 CPC 20% LPC 18% ▲3 NDP 8% ▲2 BQ 4% ▼1 GPC 3% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 43% ▲1 CPC 29% ▲3 LPC 14% ▼2 NDP 9% ▼1 BQ 2% GPC 1% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-16 338Canada.com
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