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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in August 2024, with a middle field date of August 4, 2024. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,550 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (July 2024), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Liberal Party remains stable at 23%, and the New Democratic Party loses two points from 20% to 18% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 43% ▲1 CPC 23% LPC 18% ▼2 NDP 7% ▼1 BQ 4% GPC 4% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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214 CPC 63 LPC 36 BQ 28 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 7 3 1 NB 6 4 QC 36 24 17 1 ON 87 21 13 1 MB 7 4 3 SK 13 1 AB 36 1 BC 31 7 4 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll August 4, 2024 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 41% ▼6 CPC 34% ▼1 LPC 19% ▲5 NDP 4% ▲2 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Quebec 31% ▲7 CPC 30% ▼6 BQ 24% ▲1 LPC 12% ▲2 NDP 3% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% ▲1 CPC 26% ▼1 LPC 20% NDP 5% PPC 4% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 51% ▼1 CPC 20% ▲7 LPC 20% ▼11 NDP 5% ▲3 GPC 3% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Alberta 62% ▲5 CPC 17% ▲5 LPC 13% ▼14 NDP 7% ▲3 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 42% ▼5 CPC 26% NDP 17% ▼2 LPC 7% ▲2 GPC 7% ▲5 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 42% ▲3 CPC 22% ▼1 NDP 21% ▼2 LPC 7% ▼1 BQ 4% GPC 4% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Male voters 44% ▼1 CPC 26% ▲3 LPC 15% ▼1 NDP 6% ▼2 BQ 4% ▲1 GPC 4% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 35% ▲1 CPC 25% ▲1 LPC 24% NDP 6% ▼2 GPC 6% ▲1 PPC 4% ▼1 BQ Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 43% ▼2 CPC 23% ▲3 LPC 21% ▼1 NDP 5% ▼2 BQ 5% ▲2 PPC 4% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 51% ▲7 CPC 20% ▼1 LPC 15% ▼4 NDP 6% BQ 5% ▲1 GPC 3% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 42% CPC 26% LPC 16% NDP 10% ▼2 BQ 3% ▲1 PPC 2% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Government approval 57% ▼2 Disapprove 27% ▲2 Approve 16% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-08-04 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 27% 57%2024-08-04 25% 59%2024-07-19 26% 60%2024-07-07 28% 58%2024-06-23 26% 60%2024-06-10 27% 58%2024-05-19 26% 57%2024-04-14 26% 60%2024-04-07 26% 59%2024-03-19 26% 58%2024-03-03 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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