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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in July 2024, with a middle field date of July 19, 2024. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,000 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (July 2024), the Conservative Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Liberal Party remains stable at 23%, and the New Democratic Party climbs two points from 18% to 20% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 42% ▼1 CPC 23% LPC 20% ▲2 NDP 8% BQ 4% ▼1 GPC 3% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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203 CPC 66 LPC 42 BQ 30 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 5 2 PEI 4 NS 8 3 NB 6 4 QC 42 23 12 1 ON 79 28 14 1 MB 7 4 3 SK 13 1 AB 34 3 BC 34 6 2 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll July 19, 2024 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 47% ▲8 CPC 35% LPC 14% ▼4 NDP 2% ▼3 GPC 1% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Quebec 36% ▼1 BQ 24% ▲5 CPC 23% ▼2 LPC 10% ▼2 NDP 4% ▲1 GPC 3% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Ontario 43% ▼4 CPC 27% ▲1 LPC 20% ▲3 NDP 5% GPC 5% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 52% ▼3 CPC 31% ▲6 NDP 13% LPC 2% ▼4 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Alberta 57% ▼5 CPC 27% ▲25 NDP 12% ▲1 LPC 4% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 47% CPC 26% NDP 19% ▲2 LPC 5% ▼2 GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 39% ▼2 CPC 23% LPC 23% ▲3 NDP 8% ▼1 BQ 4% ▼1 GPC 3% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Male voters 45% ▲1 CPC 23% ▲1 LPC 16% ▼1 NDP 8% ▲1 BQ 4% PPC 3% ▼1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 34% ▼3 CPC 24% ▲7 LPC 24% ▼5 NDP 8% ▼1 GPC 5% ▲1 BQ 5% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 45% ▲2 CPC 22% ▲1 NDP 20% ▲1 LPC 7% BQ 3% ▼2 GPC 3% ▼2 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 44% ▼1 CPC 21% ▼4 LPC 19% ▲5 NDP 6% ▼3 BQ 4% GPC 4% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 42% ▼2 CPC 26% ▼1 LPC 16% ▲3 NDP 12% ▲1 BQ 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Government approval 59% ▼1 Disapprove 25% ▼1 Approve 16% ▲2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-07-19 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 25% 59%2024-07-19 26% 60%2024-07-07 28% 58%2024-06-23 26% 60%2024-06-10 27% 58%2024-05-19 26% 57%2024-04-14 26% 60%2024-04-07 26% 59%2024-03-19 26% 58%2024-03-03 24% 59%2024-02-19 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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