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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in August 2025, with a middle field date of August 17, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,915 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (August 2025), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Liberal Party loses four points from 43% to 39%, and the Bloc Québécois is up one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 41% ▲1 CPC 39% ▼4 LPC 7% ▲1 BQ 7% ▼1 NDP 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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154 CPC 148 LPC 31 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 NS 6 5 NB 6 4 QC 38 31 8 1 ON 61 59 1 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 AB 35 1 1 BC 20 19 3 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll August 17, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 44% ▼6 LPC 42% CPC 10% ▲6 NDP 3% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Quebec 40% ▼4 LPC 36% ▲11 BQ 21% ▼2 CPC 2% ▼4 NDP Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Ontario 46% ▼2 LPC 44% ▲3 CPC 8% ▲1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 52% CPC 35% ▲1 LPC 9% ▼4 NDP 3% ▲3 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Alberta 62% CPC 26% ▼1 LPC 8% NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 43% ▲4 CPC 42% ▲3 LPC 12% ▼4 NDP 3% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 44% LPC 36% CPC 9% NDP 8% BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Male voters 46% CPC 38% LPC 7% BQ 6% NDP 2% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 38% ▼9 LPC 36% ▲5 CPC 18% ▲4 NDP 6% ▲3 BQ 1% ▼2 GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 43% ▼2 CPC 41% ▲3 LPC 8% NDP 4% BQ 2% GPC 1% ▼1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 43% ▼1 CPC 37% ▼5 LPC 11% ▲10 BQ 6% ▼4 NDP 2% ▲1 GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 44% LPC 41% ▲3 CPC 8% ▼4 BQ 4% ▲1 NDP 1% GPC 1% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Government approval 49% ▼1 Approve 30% ▲3 Disapprove 21% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 49% 30%2025-08-17 50% 27%2025-08-04 52% 27%2025-07-13 52% 25%2025-06-29 52% 25%2025-06-18 53% 23%2025-06-04 50% 24%2025-05-18 41% 25%2025-03-23 39% 25%2025-03-19 34% 50%2025-03-11 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Mark Carney 48% Positive / favourable 30% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 22% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mark Carney 48% 30%2025-08-17 48% 29%2025-08-04 49% 28%2025-07-13 49% 28%2025-06-29 48% 29%2025-06-18 51% 27%2025-06-04 49% 29%2025-05-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 42% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 40% ▼2 Positive / favourable 18% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2025-08-17 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 40% 42%2025-08-17 42% 41%2025-08-04 38% 42%2025-07-13 39% 43%2025-06-29 41% 41%2025-06-18 39% 44%2025-06-04 40% 43%2025-05-18 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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