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About this Cardinal Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Cardinal Research in April 2025, with a middle field date of April 21, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=4,057 Canadian respondents via IVR technology (automated calls).

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±1.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 44% LPC 39% CPC 7% BQ 7% NDP 2% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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186 LPC 124 CPC 27 BQ 4 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 6 1 PEI 4 NS 8 3 NB 6 4 QC 38 27 12 1 ON 85 36 1 MB 8 5 1 SK 12 2 AB 35 1 1 BC 25 16 1 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Cardinal Research federal poll April 21, 2025 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Cardinal Research




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 53% LPC 38% CPC 4% NDP 3% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Quebec 40% LPC 29% BQ 26% CPC 4% NDP 1% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Ontario 50% LPC 40% CPC 7% NDP 2% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 46% CPC 41% LPC 9% NDP 2% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Alberta 64% CPC 27% LPC 6% NDP 1% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 41% LPC 38% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 50% LPC 33% CPC 8% NDP 6% BQ 2% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Male voters 43% CPC 39% LPC 7% BQ 7% NDP 2% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-34 years old 40% LPC 39% CPC 10% NDP 6% BQ 3% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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35-54 years old 43% LPC 41% CPC 7% NDP 5% BQ 3% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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55+ years old 48% LPC 37% CPC 7% BQ 6% NDP 1% GPC Cardinal Research federal poll | 2025-04-21 338Canada.com
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