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About this Abacus Data federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Abacus Data in December 2024, with a middle field date of December 17, 2024. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,186 Canadian respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error for an online sample is not applicable. For comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would yield a margin of error [moe] of ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (December 2024), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 45% ▲1 CPC 20% ▼1 LPC 18% ▼1 NDP 8% ▲1 BQ 4% GPC 4% ▲4 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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231 CPC 47 BQ 40 LPC 23 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 6 1 PEI 4 NS 9 2 NB 10 QC 47 15 14 2 ON 90 24 7 1 MB 11 2 1 SK 14 AB 36 1 BC 35 6 1 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Abacus Data federal poll December 17, 2024 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Abacus Data




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 53% ▲53 CPC 22% ▲22 NDP 15% ▲15 LPC 6% ▲6 GPC 4% ▲4 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Quebec 39% ▲39 BQ 27% ▲27 CPC 20% ▲20 LPC 8% ▲8 NDP 3% ▲3 PPC 2% ▲2 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Ontario 44% ▲44 CPC 27% ▲27 LPC 17% ▲17 NDP 6% ▲6 GPC 5% ▲5 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 61% ▲61 CPC 27% ▲27 NDP 8% ▲8 LPC 1% ▲1 GPC 1% ▲1 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Alberta 62% ▲62 CPC 21% ▲21 NDP 13% ▲13 LPC 3% ▲3 PPC 1% ▲1 GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 45% ▲45 CPC 27% ▲27 NDP 13% ▲13 LPC 7% ▲7 GPC 5% ▲5 PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 41% CPC 21% LPC 21% NDP 8% BQ 4% GPC 4% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Male voters 48% CPC 18% LPC 15% NDP 9% BQ 5% GPC 4% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 41% CPC 23% NDP 15% LPC 8% GPC 6% PPC 5% BQ Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 44% CPC 23% LPC 16% NDP 6% BQ 6% GPC 5% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 47% CPC 21% NDP 17% LPC 8% BQ 4% PPC 3% GPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 46% CPC 22% LPC 15% NDP 12% BQ 2% GPC 2% PPC Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Government approval 62% ▲1 Disapprove 22% ▼2 Approve 16% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data federal poll | 2024-12-17 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 22% 62%2024-12-17 24% 61%2024-12-02 25% 61%2024-11-17 25% 62%2024-11-03 24% 61%2024-10-20 26% 59%2024-10-07 25% 59%2024-09-22 24% 62%2024-09-09 27% 57%2024-08-04 25% 59%2024-07-19 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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