338Canada.com - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections


Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest electoral projections here. Federal projections will be regularly updated until the 43rd Canadian federal elections, scheduled for October 21st 2019.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!





Electoral Projection for 43rd Canadian General Election






Odds of winning most seats - projection outcome


Latest update: October 14, 2019








Popular vote projection


Latest update: October 14, 2019







Seat projection


Latest update: October 14, 2019









Regional distribution


Weighted averages of popular vote projection per region according to the latest 338Canada electoral projection (October 14, 2019)

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR Projection average
28% 16% 33% 47% 62% 30% 27% 32.5 %
40% 32% 37% 21% 16% 28% 29% 31.3 %
16% 13% 17% 21% 13% 22% 24% 16.4 %
14% 7% 9% 7% 5% 16% 18% 9.5 %
0% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6.6 %
2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2.8 %



Averages of seat totals per region according to the latest 338Canada electoral projection (October 14, 2019)

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR Projection average
5.3 9.5 48.2 20.9 33.6 17.3 0.9 135.8
24.8 33.7 60.7 3.3 0.0 10.9 1.5 134.9
0.0 32.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.4
1.7 1.8 12.0 3.8 0.3 9.9 0.6 30.1
0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.1 3.8
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6
0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Total 32 78 121 28 34 42 3 338



Complete map of most recent 338Canada electoral projection (October 14, 2019)



Pre-campaign projections