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Quebec

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: May 16, 2025

Popular vote projection 33% ± 3%▲ PQ 21% ± 3%▼ CAQ 20% ± 3%▲ LIB 13% ± 2%▼ CPQ 11% ± 2% QS Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 74▲ [60-80] PQ 33▲ [29-39] LIB 8▼ [4-11] CPQ 6 [4-8] QS 4▼ [0-15] CAQ 338Canada Quebec | May 16, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 86%▲ PQ majority 14%▼ PQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority Odds of outcome | May 16, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Quebec | Popular Vote Projection

LIB 20% ± 3% PQ 33% ± 3% CAQ 21% ± 3% QS 11% ± 2% CPQ 13% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 24% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 31% CAQ 24% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 12% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 33% CAQ 23% QS 17% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 34% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 30% CAQ 24% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 12% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 13% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 22% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 21% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% CAQ 22% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 22% LIB 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 32% CAQ 21% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 31% CAQ 23% LIB 20% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 19% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 21% LIB 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

338Canada Quebec | Seat Projection

LIB 33 [29-39] PQ 74 [60-80] CAQ 4 [0-15] QS 6 [4-8] CPQ 8 [4-11] Seat projection 80 60 40 20 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Majority: 63 seats May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 59 LIB 26 CAQ 20 QS 15 CPQ 5 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 53 LIB 27 CAQ 22 QS 15 CPQ 8 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 69 LIB 26 QS 14 CAQ 11 CPQ 5 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 66 LIB 30 CAQ 15 QS 9 CPQ 5 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 59 LIB 31 CAQ 22 QS 9 CPQ 4 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55 LIB 29 CAQ 26 QS 10 CPQ 5 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 61 LIB 29 CAQ 19 QS 10 CPQ 6 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 54 LIB 29 CAQ 27 QS 9 CPQ 6 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 63 LIB 29 CAQ 18 QS 9 CPQ 6 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 73 LIB 31 QS 8 CAQ 7 CPQ 6 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 75 LIB 31 QS 8 CPQ 6 CAQ 5 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 70 LIB 31 CAQ 9 QS 8 CPQ 7 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 64 LIB 34 CAQ 12 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 68 LIB 36 CPQ 9 CAQ 6 QS 6 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 61 LIB 34 CAQ 15 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 65 LIB 31 CAQ 14 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 74 LIB 33 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 4 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

PLQ <1% PQ >99% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 PLQ PQ Tie May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 92% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 98% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 94% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 98% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 89% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% PLQ <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Election Outcome

PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB majority LIB plurality PQ majority PQ plurality CAQ majority CAQ plurality May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ plurality 48% PQ majority 44% CAQ plurality 7% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ plurality 73% PQ majority 21% CAQ plurality 5% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ majority 63% PQ plurality 37% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ majority 58% PQ plurality 42% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ plurality 54% PQ majority 44% CAQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ plurality 64% PQ majority 30% CAQ plurality 5% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ plurality 57% PQ majority 41% CAQ plurality 2% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ plurality 63% PQ majority 26% CAQ plurality 10% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ plurality 51% PQ majority 48% CAQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ majority 96% PQ plurality 4% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ majority 75% PQ plurality 25% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ majority 59% PQ plurality 41% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ majority 62% PQ plurality 38% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ plurality 63% PQ majority 36% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ plurality 54% PQ majority 46% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader