Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!
338Canada Projection | Quebec
Latest update: April 26, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes.
The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding,
past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]