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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


192 CPC 101 LPC 37 BQ 11 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 68 50 3 1 QC 37 27 13 1 BC 31 7 4 1 AB 36 1 MB 9 4 1 SK 13 1 NS 7 4 NB 6 4 NL 5 2 PEI 3 1 YK NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on February 16, 2025

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YK NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 96 14 12 2 64 34 12 9 6 47 44 2 60 27 36 20 1 34 27 43 9 2 1 31 16 2 18 17 3 2

Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Canada (federal)

Updated February 16, 2025
CPC 42% ± 4% LPC 29% ± 4%▲ NDP 15% ± 3%▼ BQ 8% ± 1% GPC 4% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated February 15, 2025
PCPO 45% ± 4% OLP 27% ± 3%▼ NDP 18% ± 3% GPO 6% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated February 9, 2025
UCP 54% ± 5% NDP 41% ± 5% ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated February 9, 2025
NDP 45% ± 4% CPBC 43% ± 4% BCG 8% ± 2% IND 4% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Quebec

Updated February 6, 2025
PQ 32% ± 3%▼ CAQ 22% ± 3% LIB 20% ± 3%▲ CPQ 13% ± 2%▲ QS 11% ± 2%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated November 27, 2024
PC 53% ± 0%▲ LIB 23% ± 0%▲ NDP 22% ± 0%▼ IND 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated November 12, 2024
SKP 52% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0%▲ SUP 4% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated October 22, 2024
LIB 48% ± 0%▲ PC 35% ± 0%▼ GRN 14% ± 0% NDP 1% ± 0% PANB 1% ± 0%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated June 19, 2024
NDP 48% ± 4%▲ PC 41% ± 4%▼ LIB 9% ± 2%▼ GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated May 27, 2024
LIB 40% ± 6% PC 40% ± 6%▲ NDP 16% ± 4% Projections | Polls | Districts

Election calendar

2025
February 27, 2025
Ontario general election


March 9, 2025
LPC leadership race






2026
October 5, 2026
Quebec general election




2027






2028