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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!



338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



165 LPC 143 CPC 25 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 64 57 1 QC 42 25 10 1 BC 20 19 3 1 AB 34 2 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 13 1 NS 11 NB 7 3 NL 5 2 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on October 5, 2025

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YT NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 90 18 13 2 1 74 39 9 3 46 45 2 59 28 39 17 1 34 27 43 9 2 1 31 16 2 21 15 2 2


Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Quebec

Updated October 5, 2025
PQ 36% ± 4%▼ LIB 25% ± 3%▼ CAQ 15% ± 3%▲ CPQ 14% ± 2%▲ QS 8% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Canada (federal)

Updated October 5, 2025
LPC 42% ± 4%▼ CPC 40% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 2% BQ 6% ± 1%▼ GPC 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated October 1, 2025
LIB 46% ± 6%▲ PC 38% ± 6%▼ NDP 13% ± 3%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated September 28, 2025
UCP 52% ± 5%▼ NDP 39% ± 5%▼ REP 5% ± 3%▲ ABP 2% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated September 13, 2025
NDP 51% ± 4%▼ PC 39% ± 4%▲ LIB 9% ± 2% GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated September 13, 2025
NDP 44% ± 5%▼ CPBC 44% ± 5%▲ BCG 8% ± 2% IND 4% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated August 31, 2025
PCPO 48% ± 4%▲ OLP 29% ± 4%▼ NDP 16% ± 2%▼ GPO 5% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated November 27, 2024
PC 53% ± 0%▲ LIB 23% ± 0%▲ NDP 22% ± 0%▼ IND 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated November 12, 2024
SKP 53% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0%▼ SUP 4% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated October 22, 2024
LIB 48% ± 0%▲ PC 35% ± 0%▼ GRN 14% ± 0% NDP 1% ± 0% PANB 1% ± 0%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Election calendar

2025


2026
October 5, 2026
Quebec general election




2027






2028