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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in October 2026, with a middle field date of October 8, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,291 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (August 2026), the Ontario PC Party loses two points from 42% to 40% (variation similar to moe), the Ontario Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Ontario NDP climbs three points from 17% to 20%.

You can read more information on this poll here.

Back to Ontario polls

Ontario 40% ▼2 PC 32% ▲1 OLP 20% ▲3 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by region

Toronto 41% ▼3 PC 36% ▲2 OLP 16% ▼1 NDP 3% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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GTHA 42% ▼4 PC 30% ▼3 OLP 21% ▲7 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Southwestern Ontario 41% ▲11 PC 29% ▼3 OLP 20% ▼1 NDP 4% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Eastern Ontario 41% ▲14 OLP 27% ▼18 PC 22% ▲10 NDP 6% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 37% ▼1 PC 34% OLP 21% ▲2 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Male voters 42% ▼3 PC 31% ▲3 OLP 20% ▲6 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 42% ▲5 OLP 32% ▲10 PC 16% ▼4 NDP 5% ▼4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 36% ▼6 PC 32% ▲1 OLP 22% ▲5 NDP 4% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 35% ▼9 PC 31% ▼1 OLP 23% ▲4 NDP 4% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 48% ▼2 PC 27% OLP 19% ▲8 NDP 3% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Preferred Premier 37% ▼2 Ford 24% ▼5 Don't know 19% ▲3 Stiles 13% ▲2 Fraser 7% ▲1 Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 13% 37% 19% 24%2026-10-08 11% 39% 16% 29%2026-08-22 11% 39% 18% 23%2026-05-17 14% 36% 15% 27%2026-04-19 34% 18% 34%2026-04-04 38% 17% 29%2026-03-08 39% 18% 29%2026-02-08 17% 39% 16% 24%2026-01-11 17% 45% 15% 18%2025-11-06 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 ◻︎Fraser ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 
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Government approval 43% ▲2 Disapprove 36% Approve 21% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 36% 43%2026-10-08 36% 41%2026-08-22 35% 43%2026-07-26 39% 41%2026-06-15 37% 41%2026-05-17 35% 44%2026-04-19 35% 40%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 35% 40%2026-02-08 41% 35%2026-01-11 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 45% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable 35% Positive / favourable 20% ▼2 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 35% 45%2026-10-08 35% 43%2026-08-22 34% 45%2026-07-26 36% 42%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-17 34% 46%2026-04-19 33% 41%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 37% 42%2026-02-08 40% 36%2026-01-11 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 42% ▼7 Neutral / Unsure 30% ▲4 Positive / favourable 28% ▲3 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 30% 28%2026-10-08 26% 25%2026-08-22 34% 25%2026-07-26 31% 25%2026-06-15 33% 26%2026-05-17 28% 23%2026-04-19 27% 21%2026-04-04 26% 21%2026-03-08 29% 29%2026-02-08 29% 23%2026-01-11 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of John Fraser 50% ▼3 Neutral / Unsure 27% ▲4 Positive / favourable 23% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, John Fraser 27% 23%2026-10-08 23% 24%2026-08-22 26% 23%2026-07-26 27% 23%2026-06-15 26% 23%2026-05-17 24% 21%2026-04-19 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 55% ▼7 Neutral / Unsure 23% ▲5 Positive / favourable 22% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-10-08 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 23% 22%2026-10-08 18% 20%2026-08-22 23% 19%2026-07-26 22% 21%2026-06-15 24% 20%2026-05-17 22% 22%2026-04-19 21% 19%2026-04-04 21% 18%2026-03-08 21% 27%2026-02-08 19% 21%2025-10-12 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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