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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in August 2026, with a middle field date of August 22, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,518 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (July 2026), the Ontario PC Party climbs two points from 40% to 42% (variation similar to moe), the Ontario Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Ontario NDP loses four points from 21% to 17%.

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 42% ▲2 PC 31% ▼1 OLP 17% ▼4 NDP 4% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by region

Toronto 44% ▲6 PC 34% ▼1 OLP 17% ▼2 NDP 4% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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GTHA 46% ▲6 PC 33% ▼1 OLP 14% ▼7 NDP 4% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Southwestern Ontario 32% ▲2 OLP 30% ▼11 PC 21% ▼3 NDP 6% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Eastern Ontario 45% ▲5 PC 27% ▼10 OLP 12% ▼6 NDP 6% ▲3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 38% ▲6 PC 34% ▲1 OLP 19% ▼9 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Male voters 45% ▼3 PC 28% ▼4 OLP 14% ▼1 NDP 4% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 37% ▲7 OLP 22% ▼12 PC 20% ▼5 NDP 9% ▲4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 42% ▲5 PC 31% ▼2 OLP 17% ▼5 NDP 3% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 44% ▲1 PC 32% ▲2 OLP 19% ▼3 NDP 2% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 50% ▲6 PC 27% ▼7 OLP 11% ▼7 NDP 5% ▲3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Preferred Premier 39% Ford 29% Don't know 16% Stiles 11% Fraser 6% Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 11% 39% 16% 29%2026-08-22 11% 39% 18% 23%2026-05-17 14% 36% 15% 27%2026-04-19 34% 18% 34%2026-04-04 38% 17% 29%2026-03-08 39% 18% 29%2026-02-08 17% 39% 16% 24%2026-01-11 17% 45% 15% 18%2025-11-06 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 ◻︎Fraser ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 
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Government approval 41% ▼2 Disapprove 36% ▲1 Approve 23% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 36% 41%2026-08-22 35% 43%2026-07-26 39% 41%2026-06-15 37% 41%2026-05-17 35% 44%2026-04-19 35% 40%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 35% 40%2026-02-08 41% 35%2026-01-11 42% 34%2025-11-06 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 43% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable 35% ▲1 Positive / favourable 22% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 35% 43%2026-08-22 34% 45%2026-07-26 36% 42%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-17 34% 46%2026-04-19 33% 41%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 37% 42%2026-02-08 40% 36%2026-01-11 42% 37%2025-11-06 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 49% ▲8 Neutral / Unsure 26% ▼8 Positive / favourable 25% Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 26% 25%2026-08-22 34% 25%2026-07-26 31% 25%2026-06-15 33% 26%2026-05-17 28% 23%2026-04-19 27% 21%2026-04-04 26% 21%2026-03-08 29% 29%2026-02-08 29% 23%2026-01-11 31% 27%2025-11-06 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of John Fraser 53% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure 24% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 23% ▼3 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, John Fraser 23% 24%2026-08-22 26% 23%2026-07-26 27% 23%2026-06-15 26% 23%2026-05-17 24% 21%2026-04-19 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 62% ▲4 Neutral / Unsure 20% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 18% ▼5 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-08-22 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 18% 20%2026-08-22 23% 19%2026-07-26 22% 21%2026-06-15 24% 20%2026-05-17 22% 22%2026-04-19 21% 19%2026-04-04 21% 18%2026-03-08 21% 27%2026-02-08 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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