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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in July 2026, with a middle field date of July 26, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,000 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (June 2026), the Ontario PC Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Ontario Liberal Party remains stable at 32%, and the Ontario NDP climbs two points from 19% to 21% (variation smaller than moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 40% ▼1 PC 32% OLP 21% ▲2 NDP 3% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by region

Toronto 38% ▲2 PC 35% ▼1 OLP 19% ▼2 NDP 6% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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GTHA 40% ▼2 PC 34% ▼1 OLP 21% ▲3 NDP 2% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Southwestern Ontario 41% ▼1 PC 30% OLP 24% ▲9 NDP 4% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Eastern Ontario 40% PC 37% ▲4 OLP 18% ▲2 NDP 3% ▼4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 33% OLP 32% ▼3 PC 28% ▲5 NDP 4% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Male voters 48% ▲2 PC 32% OLP 15% NDP 2% ▼3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 34% ▲7 PC 30% ▼15 OLP 25% ▲5 NDP 5% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 37% ▼3 PC 33% ▲2 OLP 22% ▲3 NDP 4% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 43% ▼6 PC 30% ▲4 OLP 22% ▲4 NDP 3% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 44% PC 34% ▲4 OLP 18% NDP 2% ▼3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Government approval 43% ▲2 Disapprove 35% ▼4 Approve 22% ▲2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 35% 43%2026-07-26 39% 41%2026-06-15 37% 41%2026-05-17 35% 44%2026-04-19 35% 40%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 35% 40%2026-02-08 41% 35%2026-01-11 42% 34%2025-11-06 42% 33%2025-10-12 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 45% ▲3 Negative / unfavourable 34% ▼2 Positive / favourable 21% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 34% 45%2026-07-26 36% 42%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-17 34% 46%2026-04-19 33% 41%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 37% 42%2026-02-08 40% 36%2026-01-11 42% 37%2025-11-06 43% 35%2025-10-12 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 41% ▼3 Neutral / Unsure 34% ▲3 Positive / favourable 25% Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 34% 25%2026-07-26 31% 25%2026-06-15 33% 26%2026-05-17 28% 23%2026-04-19 27% 21%2026-04-04 26% 21%2026-03-08 29% 29%2026-02-08 29% 23%2026-01-11 31% 27%2025-11-06 26% 27%2025-10-12 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of John Fraser 51% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure 26% ▼1 Positive / favourable 23% Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, John Fraser 26% 23%2026-07-26 27% 23%2026-06-15 26% 23%2026-05-17 24% 21%2026-04-19 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 58% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure 23% ▲1 Positive / favourable 19% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-07-26 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 23% 19%2026-07-26 22% 21%2026-06-15 24% 20%2026-05-17 22% 22%2026-04-19 21% 19%2026-04-04 21% 18%2026-03-08 21% 27%2026-02-08 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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