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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in June 2026, with a middle field date of June 15, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=2,182 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±2.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (May 2026), the Ontario PC Party remains stable at 41%, the Ontario Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Ontario NDP climbs two points from 17% to 19% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 41% PC 32% ▲1 OLP 19% ▲2 NDP 5% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by region

Toronto 36% ▲5 OLP 36% ▼3 PC 21% ▲2 NDP 4% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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GTHA 42% ▲3 PC 35% ▼2 OLP 18% ▲2 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Southwestern Ontario 42% ▲2 PC 30% ▲1 OLP 15% ▼3 NDP 6% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Eastern Ontario 40% ▼8 PC 33% ▲16 OLP 16% ▼5 NDP 7% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 35% ▼2 PC 33% OLP 23% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Male voters 46% ▲1 PC 32% ▲2 OLP 15% ▼1 NDP 5% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 45% ▲5 OLP 27% ▼1 PC 20% ▲1 NDP 4% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 40% ▲1 PC 31% ▼3 OLP 19% ▲1 NDP 5% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 49% ▲2 PC 26% OLP 18% ▲4 NDP 4% ▼4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 44% ▼2 PC 30% ▲1 OLP 18% NDP 5% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Government approval 41% Disapprove 39% ▲2 Approve 20% ▼2 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 39% 41%2026-06-15 37% 41%2026-05-17 35% 44%2026-04-19 35% 40%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 35% 40%2026-02-08 41% 35%2026-01-11 42% 34%2025-11-06 42% 33%2025-10-12 47% 31%2025-09-15 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 42% ▼3 Negative / unfavourable 36% ▼1 Positive / favourable 22% ▲4 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 36% 42%2026-06-15 37% 45%2026-05-17 34% 46%2026-04-19 33% 41%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 37% 42%2026-02-08 40% 36%2026-01-11 42% 37%2025-11-06 43% 35%2025-10-12 46% 33%2025-09-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 44% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure 31% ▼2 Positive / favourable 25% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 31% 25%2026-06-15 33% 26%2026-05-17 28% 23%2026-04-19 27% 21%2026-04-04 26% 21%2026-03-08 29% 29%2026-02-08 29% 23%2026-01-11 31% 27%2025-11-06 26% 27%2025-10-12 28% 27%2025-09-15 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of John Fraser 50% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 27% ▲1 Positive / favourable 23% Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, John Fraser 27% 23%2026-06-15 26% 23%2026-05-17 24% 21%2026-04-19 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 57% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure 22% ▼2 Positive / favourable 21% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-06-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 22% 21%2026-06-15 24% 20%2026-05-17 22% 22%2026-04-19 21% 19%2026-04-04 21% 18%2026-03-08 21% 27%2026-02-08 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 25% 21%2025-07-13 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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