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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in May 2026, with a middle field date of May 17, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,017 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (April 2026), the Ontario PC Party climbs four points from 37% to 41%, the Ontario Liberal Party loses five points from 36% to 31%, and the Ontario NDP remains stable at 17%.

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 41% ▲4 PC 31% ▼5 OLP 17% NDP 5% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com


Breakdown by region

Toronto 39% ▲3 PC 31% ▼12 OLP 19% ▲5 NDP 6% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
GTHA 39% ▲4 PC 37% OLP 16% ▼3 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com

Southwestern Ontario 40% ▼1 PC 29% ▼2 OLP 18% ▲4 NDP 7% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Eastern Ontario 48% ▲16 PC 21% ▲6 NDP 17% ▼19 OLP 9% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 37% ▲5 PC 33% ▼8 OLP 19% ▲1 NDP 6% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Male voters 45% ▲3 PC 30% ▼1 OLP 16% ▲1 NDP 5% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 40% ▼11 OLP 28% ▲10 PC 19% ▲1 NDP 6% ▼4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 39% ▼1 PC 34% ▲3 OLP 18% ▲2 NDP 4% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 47% ▲4 PC 26% ▼2 OLP 14% ▼7 NDP 8% ▲5 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
60+ years old 46% ▲2 PC 29% ▼7 OLP 18% ▲6 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com


Preferred Premier 39% ▲3 Ford 23% ▼4 Don't know 18% ▲3 Stiles 11% ▼3 Fraser 8% ▲1 Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 11% 39% 18% 23%2026-05-17 14% 36% 15% 27%2026-04-19 34% 18% 34%2026-04-04 38% 17% 29%2026-03-08 39% 18% 29%2026-02-08 17% 39% 16% 24%2026-01-11 17% 45% 15% 18%2025-11-06 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 18% 48% 12% 18%2025-08-17 ◻︎Fraser ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 

Government approval 41% ▼3 Disapprove 37% ▲2 Approve 22% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 37% 41%2026-05-17 35% 44%2026-04-19 35% 40%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 35% 40%2026-02-08 41% 35%2026-01-11 42% 34%2025-11-06 42% 33%2025-10-12 47% 31%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-17 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove


Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 45% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 37% ▲3 Positive / favourable 18% ▼2 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 37% 45%2026-05-17 34% 46%2026-04-19 33% 41%2026-04-04 36% 41%2026-03-08 37% 42%2026-02-08 40% 36%2026-01-11 42% 37%2025-11-06 43% 35%2025-10-12 46% 33%2025-09-15 46% 32%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 41% ▼8 Neutral / Unsure 33% ▲5 Positive / favourable 26% ▲3 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 33% 26%2026-05-17 28% 23%2026-04-19 27% 21%2026-04-04 26% 21%2026-03-08 29% 29%2026-02-08 29% 23%2026-01-11 31% 27%2025-11-06 26% 27%2025-10-12 28% 27%2025-09-15 27% 27%2025-08-17 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of John Fraser 51% ▼4 Neutral / Unsure 26% ▲2 Positive / favourable 23% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, John Fraser 26% 23%2026-05-17 24% 21%2026-04-19 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 56% Neutral / Unsure 24% ▲2 Positive / favourable 20% ▼2 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-05-17 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 24% 20%2026-05-17 22% 22%2026-04-19 21% 19%2026-04-04 21% 18%2026-03-08 21% 27%2026-02-08 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 25% 21%2025-07-13 24% 23%2025-06-04 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable


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