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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in October 2025, with a middle field date of October 12, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,000 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (September 2025), the Ontario PC Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Ontario Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Ontario NDP climbs three points from 12% to 15% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 51% ▼1 PC 25% ▲1 OLP 15% ▲3 NDP 5% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by region

Toronto 58% ▲6 PC 26% ▼2 OLP 12% ▲4 NDP 1% ▼5 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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GTHA 48% ▼1 PC 32% ▲5 OLP 11% ▼2 NDP 7% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Southwestern Ontario 53% ▼7 PC 17% ▼1 OLP 16% ▲6 NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Eastern Ontario 53% ▲3 PC 22% ▼4 OLP 16% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 49% PC 25% ▼1 OLP 17% ▲2 NDP 6% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Male voters 54% ▼1 PC 24% ▲1 OLP 13% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 40% ▲1 PC 31% ▼4 OLP 15% ▲1 NDP 9% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 51% ▲2 PC 25% ▼4 OLP 14% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 58% ▼4 PC 20% ▲6 OLP 13% ▲2 NDP 6% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 52% ▼3 PC 25% ▲2 OLP 16% ▲3 NDP 4% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Preferred Premier 46% Ford 19% ▲1 Don't know 18% Crombie 12% Stiles 4% ▼2 Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 18% 48% 12% 18%2025-08-17 20% 46% 12% 17%2025-07-13 25% 40% 15% 14%2025-02-25 ◻︎Crombie ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 
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Government approval 42% ▼5 Approve 33% ▲2 Disapprove 25% ▲3 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 42% 33%2025-10-12 47% 31%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-17 44% 32%2025-07-13 44% 31%2025-06-04 41% 42%2025-02-25 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 43% ▼3 Positive / favourable 35% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable 22% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 43% 35%2025-10-12 46% 33%2025-09-15 46% 32%2025-08-17 46% 33%2025-07-13 44% 33%2025-06-04 41% 40%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 47% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure 27% Negative / unfavourable 26% ▼2 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 26% 27%2025-10-12 28% 27%2025-09-15 27% 27%2025-08-17 28% 24%2025-07-13 28% 25%2025-06-04 33% 24%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Bonnie Crombie 40% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure 35% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 25% ▼4 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Bonnie Crombie 25% 35%2025-10-12 29% 34%2025-09-15 30% 33%2025-08-17 33% 32%2025-07-13 31% 33%2025-06-04 33% 31%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 60% ▲7 Neutral / Unsure 21% ▼3 Negative / unfavourable 19% ▼4 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 25% 21%2025-07-13 24% 23%2025-06-04 24% 21%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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