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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in September 2025, with a middle field date of September 15, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,021 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (August 2025), the Ontario PC Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Ontario Liberal Party loses three points from 27% to 24% (variation similar to moe), and the Ontario NDP remains stable at 12%.

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 52% ▼1 PC 24% ▼3 OLP 12% NDP 6% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by region

Toronto 52% ▼3 PC 28% ▲1 OLP 8% ▼1 NDP 6% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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GTHA 49% ▼4 PC 27% ▼3 OLP 13% ▲5 NDP 5% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Southwestern Ontario 60% ▲6 PC 18% ▼3 OLP 10% ▼4 NDP 7% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Eastern Ontario 50% ▲4 PC 26% ▼4 OLP 12% ▼3 NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 49% PC 26% OLP 15% NDP 5% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Male voters 55% PC 23% OLP 9% NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 39% PC 35% OLP 14% NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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30-44 years old 49% PC 29% OLP 10% NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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45-59 years old 62% PC 14% OLP 11% NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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60+ years old 55% PC 23% OLP 13% NDP 3% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Preferred Premier 46% ▼2 Ford 18% Crombie 18% Don't know 12% Stiles 6% ▲2 Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 18% 48% 12% 18%2025-08-17 20% 46% 12% 17%2025-07-13 25% 40% 15% 14%2025-02-25 ◻︎Crombie ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 
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Government approval 47% ▼1 Approve 31% ▲1 Disapprove 22% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Abacus Data Government approval tracker 47% 31%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-17 44% 32%2025-07-13 44% 31%2025-06-04 41% 42%2025-02-25 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 46% Positive / favourable 33% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 21% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 46% 33%2025-09-15 46% 32%2025-08-17 46% 33%2025-07-13 44% 33%2025-06-04 41% 40%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 45% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 28% ▲1 Positive / favourable 27% Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 28% 27%2025-09-15 27% 27%2025-08-17 28% 24%2025-07-13 28% 25%2025-06-04 33% 24%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Bonnie Crombie 37% Neutral / Unsure 34% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 29% ▼1 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Bonnie Crombie 29% 34%2025-09-15 30% 33%2025-08-17 33% 32%2025-07-13 31% 33%2025-06-04 33% 31%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 53% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 24% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 23% Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-09-15 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 25% 21%2025-07-13 24% 23%2025-06-04 24% 21%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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