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Oshawa



Latest projection: April 19, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Oshawa


Liberal Isaac Ransom
Conservative Rhonda Kirkland
NDP Sara Labelle
Green Katherine Mathewson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Oshawa 47% ± 8%▼ CPC 36% ± 8%▲ LPC 14% ± 5% NDP CPC 2021 39.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 19, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oshawa 95%▼ CPC 5%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 19, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Oshawa

LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Oshawa 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 19, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 21% NDP 20% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 22% NDP 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 50% LPC 24% NDP 17% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 28% NDP 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-19 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Oshawa

LPC 5% CPC 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 19, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Oshawa



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 38.9% 39.7% 47% ± 8% LPC 25.4% 23.1% 36% ± 8% NDP 28.5% 28.5% 14% ± 5% GPC 5.1% 1.5% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.0% 7.1% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.