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Manitoba


Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: October 7, 2023

LeaderHeather Stefanson
Popular vote in 201946.8%
Current vote projection42.4% ± 0.6%
Current number of MP's22
Current seat projection22 [21-24]

1. Steinbach 2. Borderland 3. Morden-Winkler 4. Midland 5. Agassiz 6. La Vérendrye 7. Turtle Mountain 8. Spruce Woods 9. Lakeside 10. Swan River 11. Riding Mountain 12. Portage la Prairie 13. Lac du Bonnet 14. Red River North 15. Springfield-Ritchot 16. Fort Whyte 17. Roblin 18. Dawson Trail 19. Interlake-Gimli 20. Selkirk 21. Tuxedo 22. Brandon West 23. Lagimodière 24. Waverley 25. McPhillips 26. Dauphin 27. Kirkfield Park 28. Kildonan-River East 29. Rossmere Majority: 29 seats 30. Assiniboia 31. Radisson 32. Seine River 33. Southdale 34. Brandon East 35. Riel 36. Fort Richmond 37. Transcona 38. Keewatinook 39. Burrows 40. River Heights 41. St. Vital 42. Fort Garry 43. The Maples 44. Elmwood 45. Tyndall Park 46. Concordia 47. St. James 48. The Pas-Kameesak 49. Thompson 50. St. Boniface 51. St. Johns 52. Flin Flon 53. Union Station 54. Fort Rouge 55. Point Douglas 56. Notre Dame 57. Wolseley PC The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection October 7, 2023

Vote projection | October 7, 2023

41% 42% 43% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 41.9% 42.4% ± 0.6% Max. 43.0% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | October 7, 2023

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 21 22 Max. 24 Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Morden-Winkler PC safe >99%
2. Steinbach PC safe >99%
3. Borderland PC safe >99%
4. Agassiz PC safe >99%
5. Midland PC safe >99%
6. La Vérendrye PC safe >99%
7. Turtle Mountain PC safe >99%
8. Swan River PC safe >99%
9. Riding Mountain PC safe >99%
10. Spruce Woods PC safe >99%
11. Lakeside PC safe >99%
12. Red River North PC safe >99%
13. Lac du Bonnet PC safe >99%
14. Portage la Prairie PC safe >99%
15. Springfield-Ritchot PC safe >99%
16. Fort Whyte PC likely >99%
17. Roblin PC likely 99%
18. Dawson Trail PC likely 98%
19. Interlake-Gimli PC likely 95%
20. Selkirk PC leaning 88%
21. Tuxedo PC leaning 77%
22. Brandon West Toss up 60%
23. Lagimodière Toss up 42%
24. Waverley Toss up 39%
25. McPhillips NDP leaning 23%
26. Dauphin NDP leaning 22%
27. Kirkfield Park NDP likely 5%
28. Kildonan-River East NDP likely 4%
29. Rossmere NDP likely 2%
30. Assiniboia NDP likely 1%
31. Radisson NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Morden-Winkler PC safe
2. Steinbach PC safe
3. Borderland PC safe
4. Agassiz PC safe
5. Midland PC safe
6. La Vérendrye PC safe
7. Turtle Mountain PC safe
8. Swan River PC safe
9. Riding Mountain PC safe
10. Spruce Woods PC safe
11. Lakeside PC safe
12. Red River North PC safe
13. Lac du Bonnet PC safe
14. Portage la Prairie PC safe
15. Springfield-Ritchot PC safe
16. Fort Whyte PC likely
17. Roblin PC likely
18. Dawson Trail PC likely
19. Interlake-Gimli PC likely
20. Selkirk PC leaning
21. Tuxedo PC leaning
22. Brandon West Toss up
23. Lagimodière Toss up
24. Waverley Toss up
25. McPhillips NDP leaning
26. Dauphin NDP leaning
27. Kirkfield Park NDP likely
28. Kildonan-River East NDP likely
29. Rossmere NDP likely
30. Assiniboia NDP likely
31. Radisson NDP likely