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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: January 14, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Male voters 49% 61% 55% ± 6% 30% 42% 36% ± 6% 5% 13% 9% ± 4% 338Canada Quebec | December 3, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds | Male voters 55% 9% 36% Before distribution 60% 40% Proportional distribution 60% 40% Half & half 61% 39% Two thirds to No camp 58% 42% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | December 3, 2025

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