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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: February 28, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Male voters 50% 63% 57% ± 6% 28% 40% 34% ± 6% 6% 13% 9% ± 4% 338Canada Quebec | February 28, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds | Male voters 57% 9% 34% Before distribution 62% 38% Proportional distribution 61% 39% Half & half 63% 37% Two thirds to No camp 60% 40% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | February 28, 2026

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