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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: January 14, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Francophone voters 47% 57% 52% ± 5% 33% 43% 38% ± 5% 6% 12% 9% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | December 3, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds | Francophone voters 52% 9% 38% Before distribution 58% 42% Proportional distribution 57% 43% Half & half 58% 42% Two thirds to No camp 55% 45% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | December 3, 2025

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