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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: February 3, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Francophone voters 49% 59% 54% ± 5% 31% 41% 36% ± 5% 7% 14% 10% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | February 3, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds | Francophone voters 54% 10% 36% Before distribution 60% 40% Proportional distribution 59% 41% Half & half 61% 39% Two thirds to No camp 57% 43% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | February 3, 2026

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