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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: March 5, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Francophone voters 53% 63% 58% ± 5% 29% 39% 34% ± 5% 6% 11% 8% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Francophone voters 58% 8% 34% Before distribution 63% 37% Proportional distribution 62% 38% Half & half 63% 37% Two thirds to No camp 60% 40% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | March 5, 2026

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