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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: April 20, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Francophone voters 50% 60% 55% ± 5% 34% 44% 39% ± 5% 4% 9% 7% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | April 20, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Francophone voters 55% 7% 39% Before distribution 59% 41% Proportional distribution 58% 42% Half & half 59% 41% Two thirds to No camp 57% 43% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | April 20, 2026

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