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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: January 14, 2026



Sovereignty projection | 18-34 years old 50% 68% 59% ± 9% 24% 41% 32% ± 8% 4% 14% 9% ± 5% 338Canada Quebec | December 3, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds | 18-34 years old 59% 9% 32% Before distribution 65% 35% Proportional distribution 63% 37% Half & half 65% 35% Two thirds to No camp 62% 38% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | December 3, 2025

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