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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: April 20, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Montreal CMA 58% 70% 64% ± 6% 22% 33% 28% ± 6% 5% 12% 9% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | April 20, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Montreal CMA 64% 9% 28% Before distribution 70% 30% Proportional distribution 68% 32% Half & half 69% 31% Two thirds to No camp 67% 33% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | April 20, 2026

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