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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: May 21, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Montreal CMA 59% 71% 65% ± 6% 21% 32% 27% ± 6% 5% 12% 8% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Montreal CMA 65% 8% 27% Before distribution 71% 29% Proportional distribution 69% 31% Half & half 71% 29% Two thirds to No camp 68% 32% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026

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