Canada

The Record So Far



2026 Quebec General Election


October 5, 2026

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.
117 / 127 (92.1%) Correct winner 8 / 127 (6.3%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 2 / 127 (1.6%) Incorrect winner, outside moe 2026 Quebec General Election
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 70 69 1 99%
Likely 30 27 3 90%
Leaning 5 4 1 80%
Toss up 22 17 5 77%
Total 127 117 10 92%




Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsCorrect %
2026 Quebec General Election 92%
2025 Canadian Federal Election 87%
2025 Ontario General Election 83%
2024 Nova Scotia General Election 98%
2024 Saskatchewan General Election 92%
2024 New Brunswick General Election 84%
2024 British Columbia General Election 84%
2023 Manitoba General Election 91%
2023 Alberta General Election 94%
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%