Canada

The Record So Far



2025 Ontario General Election


February 27, 2025

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.
103 / 124 (83.1%) Correct winner 14 / 124 (11.3%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 7 / 124 (5.6%) Incorrect winner, outside moe 2025 Ontario General Election
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 53 53 0 100%
Likely 27 25 2 93%
Leaning 14 10 4 71%
Toss up 30 15 15 50%
Total 124 103 21 83.1%




Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsCorrect %
2025 Ontario General Election 83%
2024 Nova Scotia General Election 98%
2024 Saskatchewan General Election 92%
2024 New Brunswick General Election 84%
2024 British Columbia General Election 84%
2023 Manitoba General Election 91%
2023 Alberta General Election 94%
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%