The Record So Far

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.

	Districts	Correct winner	Incorrect winner	Correct %
Safe	173	172	1	99%
Likely	66	62	4	94%
Leaning	41	39	2	95%
Toss up	58	38	20	66%
Total	338	311	27	92.0%

Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

Elections	Correct %
2024 Saskatchewan General Election	92%
2024 New Brunswick General Election	84%
2024 British Columbia General Election	84%
2023 Manitoba General Election	91%
2023 Alberta General Election	94%
2022 Quebec General Election	94%
2022 Ontario General Election	87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election	92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election	64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election	90%
2020 British Columbia General Election	89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election	96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections	88%
2019 Alberta General Election	94%
2018 Quebec General Election	90%
2018 Ontario General Election	90%