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Canada

The Record So Far



2019 Alberta General Election


April 16, 2019

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.
82 / 87 (94.3%) Correct winner 3 / 87 (3.4%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 2 / 87 (2.3%) Incorrect winner, outside moe 2019 Alberta General Election
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 38 38 0 100%
Likely 30 29 1 97%
Leaning 11 10 1 91%
Toss up 8 5 3 62%
Total 87 82 5 94.3%
Districts Correct
winner
Correct %
Safe 38 38 100%
Likely 30 29 97%
Leaning 11 10 91%
Toss up 8 5 62%
Total 87 82 94.3%




Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsCorrect %
2023 Manitoba General Election 91%
2023 Alberta General Election 94%
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%