Canada

The Record So Far



2019 Canadian Federal Elections


Octobre 21, 2019

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.
299 / 338 (88.5%) Correct winner 27 / 338 (8.0%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 12 / 338 (3.6%) Incorrect winner, outside moe 2019 Canadian Federal Elections
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 88 88 0 100%
Likely 106 103 3 97%
Leaning 60 53 7 88%
Toss up 84 55 29 65%
Total 338 299 39 88.5%
Districts Correct
winner
Correct %
Safe 88 88 100%
Likely 106 103 97%
Leaning 60 53 88%
Toss up 84 55 65%
Total 338 299 88.5%




Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsCorrect %
2023 Manitoba General Election 91%
2023 Alberta General Election 94%
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%