Canada

The Record So Far



2025 Canadian Federal Election


Aprilk 28, 2025

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.
299 / 343 (87.2%) Correct winner 29 / 343 (8.5%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 15 / 343 (4.4%) Incorrect winner, outside moe 2025 Canadian Federal Election
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 150 149 1 99%
Likely 91 85 6 93%
Leaning 42 32 10 76%
Toss up 60 33 27 55%
Total 343 299 44 87%




Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsCorrect %
2025 Canadian Federal Election 87%
2025 Ontario General Election 83%
2024 Nova Scotia General Election 98%
2024 Saskatchewan General Election 92%
2024 New Brunswick General Election 84%
2024 British Columbia General Election 84%
2023 Manitoba General Election 91%
2023 Alberta General Election 94%
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%