The Record So Far

The tables below show how the final 338Canada projection fared against the election results.

	Districts	Correct winner	Incorrect winner	Correct %
Safe	29	26	3	90%
Likely	8	7	1	88%
Leaning	4	4	0	100%
Toss up	8	4	4	50%
Total	49	41	8	83.7%

Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

Elections	Correct %
2024 Saskatchewan General Election	92%
2024 New Brunswick General Election	84%
2024 British Columbia General Election	84%
2023 Manitoba General Election	91%
2023 Alberta General Election	94%
2022 Quebec General Election	94%
2022 Ontario General Election	87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election	92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election	64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election	90%
2020 British Columbia General Election	89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election	96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections	88%
2019 Alberta General Election	94%
2018 Quebec General Election	90%
2018 Ontario General Election	90%