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Quebec

Regions of Quebec, 51 districts


Latest update: June 27, 2025
Regions of Quebec 35% ± 6%▼ PQ 20% ± 4%▼ CAQ 19% ± 4%▲ LIB 14% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Regions of Quebec, 51 districts 37 [31-37] PQ 11▲ [9-12] LIB 3 [3-5] CPQ 0 [0-3] CAQ 0▼ [0-1] QS 338Canada seat projection | June 27, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Regions of Quebec

LIB 19% ± 4% PQ 35% ± 6% CAQ 20% ± 4% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 14% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Regions of Quebec 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 35% CAQ 29% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 33% CAQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 35% CAQ 28% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 35% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 28% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 34% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 34% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 33% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 28% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 25% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 36% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 11% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 36% CAQ 26% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 34% CAQ 27% CPQ 13% LIB 13% QS 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 36% CAQ 27% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 10% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 39% CAQ 24% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 10% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 36% CAQ 21% LIB 16% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 35% CAQ 20% LIB 19% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Seat projection | Regions of Quebec

LIB 11 [9-12] PQ 37 [31-37] CAQ 0 [0-3] QS 0 [0-1] CPQ 3 [3-5] Seat projection | Regions of Quebec 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 29 CAQ 14 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 24 CAQ 19 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34 CAQ 9 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 32 CAQ 13 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 29 CAQ 15 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 27 CAQ 18 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 32 CAQ 13 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 28 CAQ 17 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33 CAQ 12 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 39 CAQ 5 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 41 CAQ 3 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37 CAQ 7 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 34 CAQ 8 LIB 5 CPQ 3 QS 1 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 36 LIB 7 CAQ 4 CPQ 3 QS 1 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 33 CAQ 9 LIB 5 CPQ 3 QS 1 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 34 CAQ 11 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 41 LIB 4 CPQ 3 CAQ 2 QS 1 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 37 LIB 10 CPQ 3 QS 1 CAQ 0 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 37 LIB 11 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Seat projection | Regions of Quebec


Latest update: June 27, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
20 8 4 5 37 2
6 3 0 2 11 1
2 1 0 0 3 0
0 0 0 0 0 37
0 0 0 0 0 1

List of electoral districts | Regions of Quebec


Latest update: June 27, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ
Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ
Argenteuil Safe PQ
Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CPQ
Beauce-Nord PCQ safe
Beauce-Sud PCQ safe
Berthier Safe PQ
Bertrand Safe PQ
Bonaventure Safe PQ
Brome-Missisquoi Safe LIB
Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ
Chapleau Safe LIB
Chicoutimi Safe PQ
Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ
Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ
Dubuc Safe PQ
Duplessis Safe PQ
Gaspé Safe PQ
Gatineau Safe LIB
Granby Leaning PQ
Hull Safe LIB
Huntingdon Safe LIB
Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ
Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ
Johnson Leaning PQ
Joliette Safe PQ
Jonquière Safe PQ
Labelle Safe PQ
Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ
Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely
Maskinongé Likely PQ
Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ
Mégantic Toss up PQ/CPQ
Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ
Orford Likely LIB
Papineau Likely LIB
Pontiac Safe LIB
Prévost Safe PQ
René-Lévesque Safe PQ
Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ
Rimouski Safe PQ
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ
Roberval Safe PQ
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ
Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ
Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ
Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ
Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/QS
Trois-Rivières Likely PQ
Ungava Likely LIB