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Quebec

Regions of Quebec, 51 districts


Latest update: December 8, 2024
Regions of Quebec 36% ± 6%▼ PQ 27% ± 5%▲ CAQ 12% ± 3% CPQ 12% ± 3% QS 11% ± 3% LIB 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Regions of Quebec, 51 districts 37▼ [30-40] PQ 7▲ [3-13] CAQ 3 [2-6] LIB 3 [2-4] CPQ 1 [1-2] QS 338Canada seat projection | December 8, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Regions of Quebec

LIB 11% ± 3% PQ 36% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 5% QS 12% ± 3% CPQ 12% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Regions of Quebec 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 47% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 12% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 48% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 12% QS 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 12% QS 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 11% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 11% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 11% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 11% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 11% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 43% CPQ 17% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 43% CPQ 16% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 14% LIB 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 44% CPQ 17% PQ 14% QS 14% LIB 10% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 13% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 43% PQ 16% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 44% PQ 16% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 44% PQ 16% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 44% PQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 44% PQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 44% PQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 48% PQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% PQ 19% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 7% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% PQ 19% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 7% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 47% PQ 20% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 47% PQ 20% QS 16% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% PQ 24% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 34% PQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 32% PQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 34% CAQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 35% CAQ 27% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 35% CAQ 29% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 33% CAQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 35% CAQ 28% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 35% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 28% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 34% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 34% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 33% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 28% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 25% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 36% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-12-08

Seat projection | Regions of Quebec

LIB 4 [2-6] PQ 37 [30-40] CAQ 6 [3-13] QS 1 [1-2] CPQ 3 [2-4] Seat projection | Regions of Quebec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 48 QS 1 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 48 QS 1 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 48 QS 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 48 QS 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 48 QS 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 48 QS 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 47 CPQ 1 QS 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 48 QS 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 49 LIB 1 PQ 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 48 PQ 2 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 48 PQ 2 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 48 PQ 2 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 46 PQ 4 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 47 CPQ 2 PQ 1 LIB 1 QS 0 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 48 CPQ 1 LIB 1 PQ 1 QS 0 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 47 PQ 2 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 48 QS 1 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 48 CPQ 1 PQ 1 LIB 1 QS 0 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 45 PQ 3 CPQ 1 QS 1 LIB 1 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 46 PQ 3 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 48 PQ 1 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 49 PQ 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 48 LIB 2 PQ 1 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 46 PQ 3 LIB 2 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 46 PQ 3 LIB 2 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 47 PQ 2 LIB 2 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 47 PQ 2 LIB 2 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 47 PQ 2 LIB 2 CPQ 0 QS 0 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 46 PQ 2 LIB 2 QS 1 CPQ 0 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47 PQ 2 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 46 PQ 3 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 46 PQ 3 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46 PQ 3 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46 PQ 3 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 40 PQ 7 CPQ 2 QS 1 LIB 1 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 41 PQ 8 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 41 PQ 8 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 46 PQ 3 QS 1 LIB 1 CPQ 0 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 44 PQ 3 CPQ 2 QS 1 LIB 1 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 44 PQ 3 CPQ 2 QS 1 LIB 1 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 33 PQ 13 CPQ 2 LIB 2 QS 1 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 23 PQ 21 QS 3 CPQ 2 LIB 2 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31 CAQ 13 QS 3 CPQ 2 LIB 2 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 36 CAQ 7 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 29 CAQ 14 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 24 CAQ 19 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34 CAQ 9 QS 3 CPQ 3 LIB 2 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 32 CAQ 13 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 29 CAQ 15 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 27 CAQ 18 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 32 CAQ 13 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 28 CAQ 17 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33 CAQ 12 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 39 CAQ 5 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 41 CAQ 3 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37 CAQ 7 CPQ 3 LIB 3 QS 1 2024-12-08

Seat projection | Regions of Quebec


Latest update: December 8, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
16 7 10 4 37 2
0 1 1 4 6 37
1 1 0 2 4 1
0 2 0 1 3 0
0 1 0 0 1 1

List of electoral districts | Regions of Quebec


Latest update: December 8, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
001 Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain
002 Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ gain
005 Argenteuil Safe PQ gain
006 Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
007 Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain
008 Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain
011 Berthier Safe PQ gain
012 Bertrand Safe PQ gain
014 Bonaventure Safe PQ gain
018 Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
020 Champlain Leaning CAQ hold
021 Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ
026 Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain
029 Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain
032 Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain
033 Dubuc Likely PQ gain
034 Duplessis Safe PQ gain
036 Gaspé Safe PQ gain
037 Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
039 Granby Leaning PQ gain
042 Hull Likely LIB gain
043 Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
044 Iberville Likely PQ gain
045 Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold
050 Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ
051 Joliette Safe PQ gain
052 Jonquière Likely PQ gain
057 Labelle Safe PQ gain
058 Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain
063 Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain
066 Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ
071 Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain
073 Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold
075 Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ
083 Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ gain
085 Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
086 Papineau Likely CAQ hold
088 Pontiac Safe LIB hold
090 Prévost Safe PQ gain
091 René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain
094 Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ
095 Rimouski Safe PQ gain
096 Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain
098 Roberval Likely PQ gain
101 Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain
102 Saint-François Leaning PQ gain
104 Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ gain
106 Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain
111 Sherbrooke QS likely hold
116 Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ gain
117 Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ