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Regions of Quebec

51 provincial districts
Latest update: March 5, 2026

Regions of Quebec 30% 43% 37% ± 6% PQ 16% 25% 20% ± 4% LIB 13% 21% 17% ± 4% CPQ 11% 20% 16% ± 4% CAQ 6% 11% 8% ± 3% QS 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Regions of Quebec, 51 electoral districts 34 [33-37] PQ 12 [10-13] LIB 5 [3-5] CPQ 0  [0-1] CAQ 338Canada seat projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Popular vote projection | Regions of Quebec

LIB 20% ± 4% PQ 37% ± 6% CAQ 16% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 17% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Regions of Quebec 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 36% CAQ 26% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 34% CAQ 27% CPQ 13% LIB 13% QS 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 36% CAQ 27% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 10% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 39% CAQ 24% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 10% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 36% CAQ 21% LIB 16% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 35% CAQ 20% LIB 19% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 36% CAQ 20% LIB 18% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 39% CAQ 20% LIB 17% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 42% LIB 18% CAQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 7% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 43% LIB 18% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 42% CAQ 18% LIB 18% CPQ 14% QS 6% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 39% CAQ 20% LIB 18% CPQ 14% QS 6% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 44% CAQ 19% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 6% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 41% CAQ 22% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 6% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 39% CPQ 18% CAQ 17% LIB 16% QS 8% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 38% CAQ 18% LIB 17% CPQ 17% QS 8% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 37% CPQ 18% LIB 18% CAQ 16% QS 8% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 37% LIB 20% CPQ 17% CAQ 16% QS 8% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

Seat projection | Regions of Quebec

LIB 12 [10-13] PQ 34 [33-37] CAQ 0 [0-1] QS 0 [0-0] CPQ 5 [3-5] Seat projection | Regions of Quebec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 36 LIB 7 CAQ 4 CPQ 3 QS 1 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 33 CAQ 9 LIB 5 CPQ 3 QS 1 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 34 CAQ 11 CPQ 3 LIB 2 QS 1 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 41 LIB 4 CPQ 3 CAQ 2 QS 1 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 37 LIB 10 CPQ 3 QS 1 CAQ 0 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 37 LIB 11 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 38 LIB 10 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 39 LIB 9 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 39 LIB 9 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 39 LIB 9 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 39 LIB 9 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 37 LIB 9 CPQ 3 CAQ 2 QS 0 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 44 LIB 4 CPQ 3 CAQ 0 QS 0 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 40 LIB 6 CPQ 3 CAQ 2 QS 0 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 39 LIB 8 CPQ 4 CAQ 0 QS 0 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 37 LIB 10 CPQ 4 CAQ 0 QS 0 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 36 LIB 11 CPQ 4 CAQ 0 QS 0 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 34 LIB 12 CPQ 5 CAQ 0 QS 0 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

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List of districts | Regions of Quebec
Latest update: March 5, 2026

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
I Leaning PQ
Suzanne Blais
CA Safe PQ
Agnès Grondin
CA Safe PQ
Alex Boissonneault
PQ Likely PQ
Luc Provençal
CA PCQ safe
Samuel Poulin
CA PCQ safe
Caroline Proulx
CA Safe PQ
France-Élaine Duranceau
CA Safe PQ
Catherine Blouin
CA Safe PQ
Isabelle Charest
CA Likely LIB
Sonia LeBel
CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
Mathieu Lévesque
CA Likely LIB
Marie-Karlynn Laflamme
PQ Safe PQ
Mathieu Rivest
CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
Sébastien Schneeberger
CA Safe PQ
François Tremblay [Elected as CAQ]
I Safe PQ
Kateri Champagne Jourdain
CA Safe PQ
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
CA Safe PQ
Robert Bussière
CA Likely LIB
François Bonnardel
CA Leaning PQ
Suzanne Tremblay
CA Safe LIB
Carole Mallette
CA Likely LIB
Audrey Bogemans
CA Likely PQ
Joël Arseneau
PQ Safe PQ
André Lamontagne
CA Safe PQ
François St-Louis
CA Safe PQ
Yannick Gagnon
CA Safe PQ
Chantal Jeannotte
CA Safe PQ
Éric Girard
CA Safe PQ
Marie-Louise Tardif
CA Safe PQ
Isabelle Lecours
CA PCQ likely
Simon Allaire
CA Safe PQ
Pascal Bérubé
PQ Safe PQ
François Jacques
CA Toss up LIB/CPQ
Donald Martel
CA Likely PQ
Gilles Bélanger
CA Likely LIB
Mathieu Lacombe
CA Likely LIB
André Fortin
L Safe LIB
Sonia Bélanger
CA Safe PQ
Yves Montigny
CA Safe PQ
André Bachand
CA Likely LIB
Maïté Blanchette Vézina [Elected as CAQ]
I Safe PQ
CA Safe PQ
Nancy Guillemette
CA Safe PQ
CA Safe PQ
Geneviève Hébert
CA Toss up LIB/PQ
Chantal Soucy
CA Safe PQ
Youri Chassin [Elected as CAQ]
I Safe PQ
Christine Labrie
QS Leaning LIB
Jean Boulet
CA Safe PQ
Denis Lamothe
CA Leaning LIB