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Recent electoral history | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie


2014* 2018* 2022* 2026* Projection PQ 39% ± 7% 32.3% 13.2% 14.6% 36.1% CPQ 29% ± 7% 0.7% 1.7% 15.6% 27.3% LIB 17% ± 5% 22.8% 11.1% 3.6% 14.7% QS 7% ± 3% 6.6% 18.2% 13.8% 6.9% CAQ 7% ± 3% 35.6% 52.5% 51.8% 13.7%
Latest update: November 11, 2026
Note: The * symbol indicates that the results have been transposed onto the new electoral map (2026). The transpositions were carried out by the excellent Kyle Hutton.

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338Canada Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie projection

Latest update: November 11, 2026

Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie 32% 47% 39% ± 7% ▲ PQ 22% 35% 29% ± 7% CPQ 12% 22% 17% ± 5% ▲ LIB 4% 10% 7% ± 3% QS 3% 10% 7% ± 3% ▼ CAQ PQ 2022 36.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 11, 2026
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Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie 98%▲ PQ 2%▼ CPQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 11, 2026
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Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Quebec Projection | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie

Odds of winning | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie


98% 2% 43% ± 7% 57% ± 7% ▼ ▲ Projection of support for sovereignty | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie YES NO 338Canada November 11, 2026