logo
Quebec

Recent electoral history | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie


2014* 2018* 2022* Projection PQ 36% ± 7% 32.3% 13.2% 14.6% CAQ 29% ± 7% 35.6% 52.5% 51.8% CPQ 16% ± 5% 0.7% 1.7% 15.6% LIB 10% ± 4% 22.8% 11.1% 3.6% QS 8% ± 4% 6.6% 18.2% 13.8%
Latest update: June 28, 2026
Note: The * symbol indicates that the results have been transposed onto the new electoral map (2026). The transpositions were carried out by the excellent Kyle Hutton.

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Quebec flag

338Canada Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie projection

Latest update: June 28, 2026

Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie 29% 43% 36% ± 7% PQ 22% 36% 29% ± 7% CAQ 11% 21% 16% ± 5% CPQ 7% 14% 10% ± 4% LIB 5% 12% 8% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 51.784% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 28, 2026
✓ Copied!
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie 92%▲ PQ 8%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 28, 2026
✓ Copied!
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Quebec Projection | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie

Odds of winning | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie


98% 2% 43% ± 7% 57% ± 7% Projection of support for sovereignty | Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie YES NO 338Canada June 28, 2026