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New brunswick

Fredericton—Lincoln


MLA elect: David Coon (GRN)

Latest projection: October 22, 2024
GRN safe

Candidates | Fredericton—Lincoln


Progressive Conservative Daniel Chippin
Liberal Joni Leger
Green Party David Coon*

Candidates are listed on the Elections New Brunswick website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Fredericton—Lincoln 44% ± 0%▲ GRN 28% ± 0%▼ PC 27% ± 0%▼ LIB PC 2020 36.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 22, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Lincoln >99%▲ GRN <1%▼ PC <1%▼ LIB Odds of winning | October 22, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Lincoln

LIB 27% ± 0% PC 28% ± 0% GRN 44% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Lincoln 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC GRN October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 GRN 35% PC 34% LIB 26% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 GRN 37% PC 36% LIB 28% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 GRN 38% PC 36% LIB 26% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 GRN 37% PC 34% LIB 29% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 GRN 35% PC 33% LIB 31% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 GRN 44% PC 28% LIB 27% 2024-10-22

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Lincoln

LIB <1% NDP <1% GRN >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB NDP GRN October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 GRN 55% LIB 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 GRN 55% LIB 2% NDP <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 GRN 62% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 GRN 67% LIB 2% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 GRN 55% LIB 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 GRN >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-22

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Lincoln



2020 Proj. PC 36.9% 28% ± 0% GRN 33.5% 44% ± 0% LIB 21.8% 27% ± 0% PANB 6.4% 0% ± 0% NDP 1.4% 0% ± 0%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.