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New brunswick

Fredericton—Lincoln


Latest projection: March 9, 2024
Toss up PC/GRN
Fredericton—Lincoln 34% ± 8%▼ GRN 32% ± 7%▼ PC 28% ± 7%▲ LIB 3% ± 2%▲ NDP PC 2020 36.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Lincoln 58%▲ GRN 35%▼ PC 6%▲ LIB Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Lincoln

LIB 28% ± 7% PC 32% ± 7% GRN 34% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Lincoln 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 Election 2024 LIB PC GRN March 9, 2024 2023-05-01 GRN 38% PC 32% LIB 24% 2023-05-01 2023-06-06 GRN 38% PC 33% LIB 24% 2023-06-06 2023-09-02 GRN 35% PC 34% LIB 25% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 GRN 34% PC 32% LIB 28% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Lincoln

LIB 6% PC 35% GRN 58% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 Election 2024 LIB PC GRN March 9, 2024 2023-05-01 GRN 79% PC 21% LIB <1% 2023-05-01 2023-06-06 GRN 75% PC 24% LIB <1% 2023-06-06 2023-09-02 GRN 53% PC 46% LIB 1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 GRN 58% PC 35% LIB 6% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Lincoln



2020 Proj. PC 36.9% 32% ± 7% GRN 33.5% 34% ± 8% LIB 21.8% 28% ± 7% PANB 6.4% 2% ± 1% NDP 1.4% 3% ± 2%
Note: Numbers on table above are the 2020 results transposed onto new electoral map.