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Nova scotia

Sydney-Membertou


MLA elect (unofficial): Derek Mombourquette (LIB)

Latest projection: November 27, 2024
LIB likely

Candidates | Sydney-Membertou


Progressive Conservative Brian MacArthur
Liberal Party Derek Mombourquette
New Democratic Party Alison Aho
Green Party Steven McGrath

Candidates are listed on the Elections Nova Scotia website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Sydney-Membertou 45% ± 0%▲ LIB 35% ± 0%▲ PC 18% ± 0%▼ NDP LIB 2024 54.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 27, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sydney-Membertou >99%▲ LIB <1%▼ PC <1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | November 27, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 45% ± 0% PC 35% ± 0% NDP 18% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Sydney-Membertou 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2024-11-15 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP November 27, 2024 2024-11-01 LIB 41% NDP 35% PC 23% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 LIB 40% NDP 35% PC 23% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 LIB 40% NDP 35% PC 24% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 LIB 39% NDP 36% PC 24% 2024-11-20 2024-11-23 LIB 38% NDP 36% PC 25% 2024-11-23 2024-11-25 LIB 36% NDP 34% PC 28% 2024-11-25 2024-11-27 LIB 45% PC 35% NDP 18% 2024-11-27

Odds of winning | Sydney-Membertou

LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2024-11-15 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP November 27, 2024 2024-11-01 LIB 84% NDP 16% PC <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 LIB 79% NDP 21% PC <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 LIB 82% NDP 18% PC <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 LIB 69% NDP 31% PC <1% 2024-11-20 2024-11-23 LIB 64% NDP 36% PC <1% 2024-11-23 2024-11-25 LIB 62% NDP 36% PC 2% 2024-11-25 2024-11-27 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-27

Recent electoral history | Sydney-Membertou



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 38.3% 54.3% 45% ± 0% NDP 31.6% 28.3% 18% ± 0% PC 30.0% 17.5% 35% ± 0% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 0%