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Nova scotia


Sydney-Membertou


MLA: Derek Mombourquette (LIB)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

LIB likely
Sydney-Membertou 41% ± 5%▲ LIB 32% ± 5%▼ NDP 25% ± 5%▲ PC LIB 2021 54.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Sydney-Membertou 96%▲ LIB 4%▼ NDP <1% PC Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 41% ± 5% PC 25% ± 5% NDP 32% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Sydney-Membertou 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 44% NDP 28% PC 24% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 41% NDP 32% PC 25% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 41% NDP 33% PC 25% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 41% NDP 32% PC 27% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 39% NDP 34% PC 27% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 38% NDP 32% PC 30% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB 54% NDP 28% PC 17% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 43% NDP 37% PC 20% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 LIB 42% NDP 36% PC 22% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 LIB 39% NDP 37% PC 23% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 LIB 41% NDP 32% PC 25% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 96% PC <1% NDP 4% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 99% NDP 1% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 90% NDP 10% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 90% NDP 10% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 92% NDP 7% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 79% NDP 21% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 79% NDP 16% PC 5% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 87% NDP 13% PC <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 LIB 87% NDP 13% PC <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 LIB 69% NDP 31% PC <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 LIB 96% NDP 4% PC <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Sydney-Membertou



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 38.3% 54.3% 41% ± 5% NDP 31.6% 28.3% 32% ± 5% PC 30.0% 17.5% 25% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%