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Recent electoral history | Sydney-Membertou


2017 2021 2024 Projection LIB 36% ± 7% 38.3% 54.3% 45.0% PC 32% ± 6% 30.0% 17.5% 35.4% NDP 27% ± 6% 31.6% 28.3% 18.5% GRN 2% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

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338Canada Sydney-Membertou projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Sydney-Membertou 29% 43% 36% ± 7% LIB 25% 38% 32% ± 6% PC 21% 33% 27% ± 6% NDP LIB 2024 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sydney-Membertou 76%▲ LIB 22%▼ PC 2%▲ NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 36% ± 7% PC 32% ± 6% NDP 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Sydney-Membertou 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 LIB 42% PC 37% NDP 19% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 LIB 40% PC 38% NDP 20% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 LIB 39% PC 37% NDP 21% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 LIB 36% PC 32% NDP 27% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 76% PC 22% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 LIB 80% PC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 LIB 58% PC 42% NDP <1% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 LIB 64% PC 36% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 LIB 76% PC 22% NDP 2% 2026-02-18