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Nova scotia

Sydney-Membertou


MLA elect (unofficial): Derek Mombourquette (LIB)

Latest projection: November 20, 2024
Toss up LIB/NDP

Candidates | Sydney-Membertou


Progressive Conservative Brian MacArthur
Liberal Party Derek Mombourquette
New Democratic Party Alison Aho
Green Party Steven McGrath

Candidates are listed on the Elections Nova Scotia website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Sydney-Membertou 39% ± 6%▼ LIB 36% ± 6%▲ NDP 24% ± 5% PC LIB 2021 54.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sydney-Membertou 69%▼ LIB 31%▲ NDP <1% PC Odds of winning | November 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 39% ± 6% PC 24% ± 5% NDP 36% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Sydney-Membertou 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 LIB 41% NDP 35% PC 23% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 LIB 41% NDP 35% PC 23% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 LIB 40% NDP 35% PC 23% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 LIB 40% NDP 35% PC 24% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 LIB 39% NDP 36% PC 24% 2024-11-20

Odds of winning | Sydney-Membertou

LIB 69% PC <1% NDP 31% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 LIB 84% NDP 16% PC <1% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 LIB 84% NDP 16% PC <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 LIB 79% NDP 21% PC <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 LIB 82% NDP 18% PC <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 LIB 69% NDP 31% PC <1% 2024-11-20

Recent electoral history | Sydney-Membertou



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 38.3% 54.3% 39% ± 6% NDP 31.6% 28.3% 36% ± 6% PC 30.0% 17.5% 24% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%