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Nova scotia


Halifax Citadel-Sable Island


MLA: Lisa Lachance (NDP)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

NDP safe
Halifax Citadel-Sable Island 47% ± 6%▼ NDP 25% ± 5%▲ LIB 23% ± 5%▲ PC 5% ± 2% GRN NDP 2021 42.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Halifax Citadel-Sable Island >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% PC Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island

LIB 25% ± 5% PC 23% ± 5% NDP 47% ± 6% GRN 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 48% NDP 25% PC 19% GRN 8% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 45% NDP 29% PC 20% GRN 6% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 45% NDP 29% PC 20% GRN 6% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 44% NDP 28% PC 21% GRN 6% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 43% NDP 30% PC 21% GRN 5% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 42% NDP 29% PC 23% GRN 5% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 NDP 42% LIB 37% PC 18% GRN 3% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 NDP 51% LIB 27% PC 18% GRN 4% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 NDP 49% LIB 26% PC 21% GRN 4% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 NDP 50% LIB 24% PC 22% GRN 5% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 NDP 47% LIB 25% PC 23% GRN 5% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 99% NDP 1% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 99% NDP 1% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 98% NDP 2% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 98% NDP 2% PC <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 NDP 84% LIB 16% PC <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island



2017 2021 Proj. NDP 28.6% 42.3% 47% ± 6% LIB 42.3% 36.8% 25% ± 5% PC 23.7% 17.8% 23% ± 5% GRN 5.4% 3.1% 5% ± 2%