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Nova scotia

Halifax Citadel-Sable Island


MLA elect (unofficial): Lisa Lachance (NDP)

Latest projection: November 20, 2024
NDP safe

Candidates | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island


Progressive Conservative Eleanor Humphries
Liberal Party Rob Grace
New Democratic Party Lisa Lachance
Green Party Karen Beazley

Candidates are listed on the Elections Nova Scotia website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Halifax Citadel-Sable Island 51% ± 7% NDP 23% ± 5%▼ LIB 21% ± 5% PC 5% ± 3% GRN NDP 2021 42.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Halifax Citadel-Sable Island >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% PC Odds of winning | November 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island

LIB 23% ± 5% PC 21% ± 5% NDP 51% ± 7% GRN 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP GRN November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 NDP 49% LIB 25% PC 20% GRN 5% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 NDP 49% LIB 25% PC 20% GRN 5% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 NDP 49% LIB 25% PC 20% GRN 5% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 NDP 51% LIB 24% PC 21% GRN 5% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 NDP 51% LIB 23% PC 21% GRN 5% 2024-11-20

Odds of winning | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island

LIB <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB NDP November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 NDP >99% LIB <1% 2024-11-20

Recent electoral history | Halifax Citadel-Sable Island



2017 2021 Proj. NDP 28.6% 42.3% 51% ± 7% LIB 42.3% 36.8% 23% ± 5% PC 23.7% 17.8% 21% ± 5% GRN 5.4% 3.1% 5% ± 3%