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Nova scotia


Halifax Chebucto


MLA: Gary Burrill (NDP)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

NDP safe
Halifax Chebucto 56% ± 6%▼ NDP 22% ± 5%▲ LIB 15% ± 4%▲ PC 6% ± 3% GRN NDP 2021 51.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Halifax Chebucto >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% PC Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Halifax Chebucto

LIB 22% ± 5% PC 15% ± 4% NDP 56% ± 6% GRN 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Halifax Chebucto 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 43% NDP 42% PC 9% GRN 6% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 NDP 46% LIB 39% PC 10% GRN 5% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 NDP 46% LIB 39% PC 10% GRN 5% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 NDP 45% LIB 40% PC 10% GRN 5% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 NDP 48% LIB 38% PC 10% GRN 4% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 NDP 47% LIB 38% PC 11% GRN 4% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 NDP 51% LIB 33% PC 12% GRN 4% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 NDP 60% LIB 23% PC 12% GRN 5% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 NDP 58% LIB 22% PC 14% GRN 5% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 NDP 59% LIB 21% PC 14% GRN 6% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 NDP 56% LIB 22% PC 15% GRN 6% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Halifax Chebucto

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 59% NDP 41% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 NDP 81% LIB 19% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 NDP 83% LIB 17% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 NDP 77% LIB 23% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 NDP 92% LIB 8% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 NDP 88% LIB 12% PC <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 NDP >99% LIB <1% PC <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Halifax Chebucto



2017 2021 Proj. NDP 46.6% 51.4% 56% ± 6% LIB 38.2% 32.6% 22% ± 5% PC 10.9% 12.0% 15% ± 4% GRN 4.3% 4.1% 6% ± 3%