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Saskatchewan


Martensville-Warman


MLA: Terry Jenson (SKP)


Latest projection: October 21, 2023

SKP safe
Martensville-Warman 63% ± 8%▲ 26% ± 7%▲ 4% ± 4%▼ 4% ± 4% SKP 2020 74.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 21, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Martensville-Warman >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | October 21, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Martensville-Warman

SKP 63% ± 8% NDP 26% ± 7% BUF 4% ± 4% SUP 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Martensville-Warman 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 SKP NDP BUF SUP

Odds of winning | Martensville-Warman

SPP <1% SKP >99% NDP <1% GRN <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 SPP SKP NDP GRN

Recent electoral history | Martensville-Warman



2016 2020 Proj. SKP 79.4% 74.7% 63% ± 8% NDP 17.1% 17.7% 26% ± 7% BUF 0.0% 5.9% 4% ± 4% GRN 1.1% 1.7% 1% ± 1% SPP 2.1% 0.0% 1% ± 1% SUP 0.0% 0.0% 4% ± 4% PC 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%