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Saskatchewan

Cumberland


MLA: Jordan McPhail (NDP)
Latest projection: November 12, 2024
NDP likely
Cumberland 55% ± 0%▼ NDP 40% ± 0%▲ SKP 4% ± 0% GRN NDP 2024 55.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cumberland >99% NDP <1% SKP <1% GRN Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Cumberland

SKP 40% ± 0% NDP 55% ± 0% GRN 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Cumberland 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP NDP GRN November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 NDP 71% SKP 23% GRN 2% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 NDP 74% SKP 24% GRN 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 NDP 74% SKP 24% GRN 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 NDP 76% SKP 22% GRN 2% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 NDP 78% SKP 20% GRN 2% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 NDP 79% SKP 19% GRN 2% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 NDP 56% SKP 39% GRN 4% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 NDP 55% SKP 40% GRN 4% 2024-11-12

Odds of winning | Cumberland

SKP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP NDP November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 NDP >99% SKP <1% 2024-11-12

Recent electoral history | Cumberland



2020 2024 Proj. NDP 55% ± 0% 65.8% 55.1% SKP 40% ± 0% 31.4% 39.5% GRN 4% ± 0% 2.8% 4.2%
Data from 2020 are results transposed onto new electoral map.