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Saskatchewan


Athabasca


MLA: (New boundaries) (NDP)


Latest projection: February 9, 2024

NDP safe
Athabasca 66% ± 10%▲ 22% ± 8%▼ 4% ± 4%▼ NDP 2020 56.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Athabasca >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Athabasca

SKP 22% ± 8% NDP 66% ± 10% GRN 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Athabasca 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 Election 2026 SKP NDP GRN

Odds of winning | Athabasca

SPP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 Election 2026 SPP NDP

Recent electoral history | Athabasca



2020 Proj. NDP 56.7% 66% ± 10% SKP 36.5% 22% ± 8% GRN 6.7% 4% ± 4% PC 0.0% 1% ± 2% BUF 0.0% 1% ± 2% SPP 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.