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Canada

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


Latest projection: September 1, 2024
NDP leaning
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 37% ± 7%▼ NDP 32% ± 7%▲ CPC 16% ± 5%▲ LPC 11% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC NDP 2021 43.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 79%▼ NDP 21%▲ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | September 1, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 32% ± 7% NDP 37% ± 7% GPC 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC September 1, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% NDP 36% LPC 14% GPC 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 36% CPC 36% LPC 14% GPC 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 37% CPC 35% LPC 14% GPC 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 37% CPC 34% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 38% CPC 33% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 38% CPC 33% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 39% CPC 32% LPC 15% GPC 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 10% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 10% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 40% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 10% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 37% CPC 32% LPC 16% GPC 11% 2024-09-01

Odds of winning | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC <1% CPC 21% NDP 79% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 1, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 51% NDP 49% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 57% CPC 43% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 67% CPC 33% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 74% CPC 26% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 80% CPC 20% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 78% CPC 22% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 89% CPC 11% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 79% CPC 21% LPC <1% 2024-09-01

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 34.7% 43.2% 37% ± 7% LPC 17.7% 21.9% 16% ± 5% CPC 18.8% 21.0% 32% ± 7% GPC 26.3% 8.9% 11% ± 5% PPC 1.6% 4.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.